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New Tropical System Makes Waves In South Atlantic

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By NEIL JOHNSON

The Tampa Tribune

Published: July 15, 2008

TAMPA - A strong tropical wave moving through the southern Atlantic Ocean could become the season's next tropical depression, possibly by today.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Bertha may regain hurricane strength while swiping Bermuda before taking what is expected to be a wandering, uncertain path.

Monday afternoon, the island issued a hurricane watch, meaning hurricane force winds may arrive within 36 hours.

The tropical wave is about 1,200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, which marks the eastern edge of the Caribbean Sea.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center started watching the wave during the weekend and say it continues to grow better organized.

It also is moving into a part of the ocean where conditions are favorable for development, with warm water and low shear. It's heading west northwest at about 15 mph and has winds just below 30 mph, up about 5 mph from Sunday.

One forecast model calls for the wave to become a weak hurricane by Saturday.
Tropical waves are masses of thunderstorms that move off the coast of Africa every few days and head west across the Atlantic. Some become seeds for hurricanes, though storms that develop from tropical waves in the Atlantic tend to come later in the season.
Forecast models vary on where the wave will travel, though most take it into the northeast part of the Caribbean toward Haiti in five days.

Bertha's path also is uncertain. Once the storm passes Bermuda, the steering currents become complicated, hurricane forecasters said. The forecast models vary widely on how Bertha will react to an area of low pressure developing to the northeast of the storm.

The forecast track has Bertha turning and heading to the southeast before taking a path to the northeast that would move the storm farther from land.

Still, the forecast has Bertha maintaining winds of about 55 mph through Saturday afternoon. If accurate, Bertha, which became a tropical storm July 3, will have been a named storm for 16 days.

Reporter Neil Johnson can be reached at (813) 259-7731 or njohnson@tampatrib.com.

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