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Disturbance Not A Tropical Depression, Hurricane Center Says

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By NEIL JOHNSON | The Tampa Tribune

Published: July 16, 2008

Updated: 07/16/2008 05:36 pm

TAMPA - A tropical wave heading toward the Caribbean Sea has not formed a depression but has the potential to grow better organized, the National Hurricane Center said.

A hurricane hunter aircraft flew through the disturbance about 200 miles from the Caribbean Sea this afternoon to explore whether the wave had become the season's third tropical depression – the first step toward potentially becoming a hurricane.

The hurricane center has watched the area of low pressure since the weekend as it tracked across the southern Atlantic Ocean. Forecasters say it has the potential to grow into something more substantial than the disorganized mass of thunderstorms it is now.

The disturbance has winds of just below 30 mph and is expected to bring rain and windy weather to the Windward Islands at the far eastern end of the Caribbean today or Thursday.

Some early forecast models project the disturbance tracking generally west into the middle of the Caribbean by the weekend. Those models keep the storm on a relatively flat trajectory toward Central America.

However, those models are preliminary runs and carry a large potential for error, said Dennis Feltgen, spokesman for the hurricane center.

"They are so preliminary. They're just a first pass and it's way too early to tell anything," he said.

The disturbance could slow, turn, weaken or fall apart before it pushes deep into the Caribbean, he said.

The aircraft took detailed measurements of the disturbance, including radar readings, wind direction, strength and air pressure that will give forecasters far more detailed data to use in models.

The improved information will increase accuracy of the models' predictions and give forecasters a better idea of the storm's current strength.

The disturbance is heading toward an area where upper level wind conditions are not likely to hinder its development and water temperatures are warm.

Thunderstorm activity in the disturbance increased this morning, possibly signaling it is becoming better organized.

Meanwhile Tropical Storm Bertha is forecast to make the long-awaited turn to the northeast and travel farther out to sea by Friday.

The storm that formed on July 3 is the second-longest lived named storm in July since 1851. The longest-lived July storm is the second storm of 1916 that remained a named storm just over 12 days.

Bertha could outlast that record.

Bertha also is the first major hurricane – one that reached Category 3 strength or greater – to form east of the Caribbean during July.

Typically in June and July, storms form in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico. Conditions in the Atlantic don't become ripe for storms until the August and September peak of the hurricane season.

Reporter Neil Johnson can be reached at (813) 259-7731 or njohnson@tampatrib.com.

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