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Rays Midseason Report

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By MARC LANCASTER

The Tampa Tribune

Published: July 17, 2008

FIRST-HALF IMPROVEMENT

2007

•34-53, 5th place, 19 games back

•19-24 at home, 15-29 on the road

•.261 team batting average, .328 on-base percentage, 4.69 runs per game

•5.82 team ERA, .295 opponent batting average, 6.12 bullpen ERA

2008

•55-39, 2nd place, 0.5 games back

•36-14 at home, 19-25 on the road

•.260 team batting average, .336 on-base percentage, 4.61 runs per game

•3.79 team ERA, .244 opponent batting average, 3.38 bullpen ERA

MOST VALUABLE PLAYER

Evan Longoria joined the Rays on April 12 and has appeared in all 84 games they have played beginning that day, starting all but one. For a while, it seemed he did something special just about every night. His 16 homers and 53 RBIs lead the team, and his .274 average trails only Dioner Navarro (.310) and B.J. Upton (.275). He has come through in the clutch, with 16 game-tying or go-ahead RBIs to tie Carl Crawford for the team lead, and his defense has been consistently spectacular. In short, he is everything the Rays hoped he would be. They just didn't expect it to come together for him this quickly.

MOST VALUABLE PITCHER

J.P. Howell spent the early part of spring training preparing as if he might make the rotation before the Rays finally slotted him into full-time relief work. He has been a revelation in the bullpen, serving as everything from a lefty specialist to a long man. Five times, he has pitched at least three innings in a game, and he also came on to record the final out July 1 against the Red Sox after Troy Percival went down with an injury, picking up a save in the process. He has picked up six victories since May 27 and hasn't suffered a loss all season.

BIGGEST SURPRISE

Eric Hinske has given the Rays an unexpected boost after signing a minor-league contract just before spring training, following in the footsteps of Carlos Pena's work last season. A hardnosed player who was on a championship team last year, Hinske's professionalism has dovetailed with impressive production (.267, 14 homers, 45 RBIs, .356 OBP) to make him a key all-around contributor.

BIGGEST DISAPPOINTMENT

Carlos Pena perked up at the plate heading into the break, but his first-half production fell short of what he and everyone else expected. He hit .287 with 20 homers and 52 RBIs in the first half last season but has dropped off to .236 with 14 homers and 47 RBIs this year. If the Rays could pick one player to take off in the second half, he might be the guy.

SECOND-BEST CALL-UP

Grant Balfour can't match Evan Longoria's impact, of course, but the veteran has been something of a revelation as a much-needed power arm in the bullpen. Balfour struck out 33 batters in 22 innings, retiring 40.2 percent of the batters he faced (33 of 82) without allowing them to put the ball in play. Opponents are hitting .137 against him and he has earned the Rays' trust in high-pressure situations.

BEST OFFSEASON MOVE

Acquiring Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett from the Twins for Delmon Young and Brendan Harris. The Rays took a chance in giving up on a player of Young's potential, but they wound up with two players who have given the team a significant boost in areas of need. It's difficult to imagine where the Rays would be without Bartlett, who creates a comfort zone for pitchers and fellow infielders alike when he's at shortstop. And Garza has been a nice fit as a power arm who seems to be getting better as he goes along.

WORST OFFSEASON OVERSIGHT

Not bringing in a right-handed hitter capable of playing the corner outfield spots as a complement to Eric Hinske and Cliff Floyd. In fairness, the Rays put their faith in organizational stalwarts Jonny Gomes and Rocco Baldelli to hold down that spot. Gomes' inability to produce in the spotty playing time he has received has made the lack of an alternative a problem, though the Rays knew how tenuous Baldelli's health situation was before he made it public and probably would have been better served to have a fallback option in place.

BEST IN-SEASON MOVE

Getting Gabe Gross from the Brewers on April 23 for A-ball pitcher Josh Butler. Gross has been streaky at the plate, but has come up with a team-leading three walk-off hits in limited opportunity. And his defense has been a significant upgrade over anyone else the Rays can put in right field.

DOME SWEET DOME

The Rays went 36-14 at home in the first half (including 3-0 at Disney). Their success is attributable to their pitching, as they own the best home ERA in baseball at 2.82 - a vast improvement over their 5.23 home mark before the All-Star break last year.

NOTHING BUT GLOVE

The Rays finished the first half trailing only Oakland in defensive efficiency (the rate at which balls hit in play are converted to outs) at 71.7 percent - a remarkable turnaround from a year ago. Baseball Prospectus' database for defensive efficiency dates to 1959, and no team since then was worse than the Rays' 66.2 percent mark last season.

THEY'VE COME A LONG WAY

Players on the Rays' active roster for the first game of the second half last season included: Raul Casanova, Dustan Mohr, Shawn Camp, Casey Fossum, Brian Stokes, Jon Switzer and Jay Witasick.

INJURY REPORT

The Rays were battered by injuries in the first half, racking up 16 different disabled-list stints - including two apiece for relievers Troy Percival and Al Reyes, both of whom hope to be ready at or near the beginning of the second half. The losses have included time on the shelf for such key cogs as Scott Kazmir (30 games), Matt Garza (16 games), Dioner Navarro (16 games), Cliff Floyd (29 games), Carlos Pena (20 games) and Jason Bartlett (10 games and counting). And that doesn't even factor in the uncertainty that remains around Rocco Baldelli. For the most part, the Rays have managed to ride out their assorted casualties, but they'd love to give their medical staff a bit of a break in the second half.

WHY THEY WILL MAKE THE PLAYOFFS

Their young starting rotation will continue to improve throughout the second half and finally get some help from an offense that hasn't put it all together for more than a few days at a time so far. It's fair to expect more out of Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena following the break, and those two reclaiming their projected level of production would make a huge difference. If the Rays get that, keep playing above-average defense and manage to keep their heads together when times get tough down the stretch, they definitely have a shot. The Rockies rose from the depths last year and the Tigers the year before - why not the Rays?

WHY THEY WON'T MAKE THE PLAYOFFS

Pitching that has exceeded expectations, particularly in the bullpen, will begin to regress as the innings pile up, the stakes are raised and the offense won't be able to pick up the slack. An injury that can't be patched over as effectively as in the first half could wreak havoc, depending on where and when it comes, because the Rays aren't brimming with major-league-ready depth in most spots (see Jason Bartlett's replacements as an example). Add in any lingering doubts from the Devil Rays days that might remain and it certainly is conceivable that the bottom could fall out.

POTENTIAL TRADE TARGETS

•Rockies LHP Brian Fuentes - He could close, set up or serve as a lefty specialist.

•A's RHP Huston Street and OF Matt Murton - Would provide a huge lift to the bullpen and add the right-handed outfield bat the Rays seek.

•Pirates OFs Jason Bay or Xavier Nady and LHP Damaso Marte - See above, but potentially at a higher cost.

MINOR-LEAGUERS WHO COULD PLAY MAJOR ROLE

•LHP David Price - He's the guy everyone wants to see, and he might get his chance in September. There's little doubt his stuff will play at the major-league level, but the Rays will have to be convinced they won't harm his development by bringing him up in his first professional season.

•RHP Jeff Niemann - Likely would be first in line if Rays have another injury in their starting rotation. His first two big-league starts this season were a mixed bag, but he has been consistently effective for Durham (6-3, 3.64 ERA) and has been hot lately.

•OF Justin Ruggiano - If the Rays decide the price of acquiring an established right-handed-hitting outfielder is prohibitive, they could give Ruggiano his first extended look (likely at the expense of Jonny Gomes). The 26-year-old leads Durham in hitting and has racked up 14 stolen bases in only 44 games.

•Keep an eye on: 1B/DH Dan Johnson, OF Fernando Perez, RHP Dale Thayer

BY THE NUMBERS

Days the Rays have spent either alone in first place or tied for the top spot, 21 more than in their first 10 seasons combined

Days the Rays have been over .500, four more than in their first 10 seasons combined

The Rays' attendance through 50 home games, up from 776,916 at the same point a year ago

Times in the final 31 games of the first half that the Rays' starting pitcher worked at least five innings. The only exception: Scott Kazmir lasting 42/3 on June 17 against the Cubs

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