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Tropical Disturbance In Caribbean Sea Not Very Disturbing

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By NEIL JOHNSON | The Tampa Tribune

Published: July 17, 2008

TAMPA - A tropical disturbance zipping across the Caribbean Sea is becoming more disheveled and less likely to grow into anything more significant.

The National Hurricane Center said today the disturbance that crossed into the Caribbean on Wednesday became less organized overnight.

The disturbance that forecasters said on Wednesday had a more than 50 percent chance of becoming at least a tropical depression now has a 20 percent to 50 percent chance.

It is moving west at more than 20 mph.

The hurricane center, however, said the system is still worth watching.

Regardless of whether the disturbance grows into something more serious, computer forecast models predict it will continue on a mostly westward path, curving slightly north as it crosses the Caribbean.

The models have been fairly consistent since the hurricane center began watching the system when it was a tropical wave east of the Caribbean.

The path models portray is similar to the track taken by hurricanes Dean and Felix in the 2007 season. Both storms headed into the Yucatan Peninsula.

There is no indication the disturbance will grow even to a tropical storm, much less the Category 5 bookends Dean and Felix.

Because it is not a depression, the hurricane center is not issuing track or intensity forecasts for the disturbance.

Another tropical wave farther west in the Caribbean probably will move ashore in Central America long before it has a chance to become more organized. It still could dump enough rain to cause mudslides and floods in mountains of Central America, the hurricane center said.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Bertha continues to hang on northeast of Bermuda. Forecasters think the storm will lose its tropical nature in a few days, but it could move into the top 10 long-lived storms if it survives until the weekend.

Bertha formed on July 3 and has been at hurricane or tropical storm strength since.

Reporter Neil Johnson can be reached at (813) 259-7731 or njohnson@tampatrib.com.

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