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Dreaming of a 'White Christmas?'

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By TED JACKOVICS

MEDIA GENERAL NEWS SERVICE

Published: July 18, 2008

TAMPA - As fuel prices soar and airlines trim flights, savvy travelers are booking holiday air travel months early to be assured of a seat.

Last year, the best Thanksgiving and Christmas air fares and convenient flights began to disappear around Labor Day. This year, the time to book is right now, travel experts say.

What's so different about 2008? Airlines are eliminating flights and using smaller aircraft to save on fuel costs. As a result there will be fewer available seats and higher fares through December and into 2009, airline officials say.

The reduced flight capacity, along with travelers grabbing seats earlier, already has driven some fares higher, said George Hobica, founder of AirfareWatchdog.com.

For example, the best fares for a Tampa-Chicago round trip in late December range between $410 and $492 on various airlines. By comparison, round-trip fares between the two cities are $260 on United Airlines for the weekend of July 19, according to AirfareWatchdog, which is owned by Expedia.com" rel="nofollow">class="bold">Expedia.com but does not sell travel bookings.

Travelers interested in Tampa-New York flights can still get relative bargains for the Christmas and Hanukkah holidays on several airlines. Round-trip fares of $286 round-trip are available for flights leaving Tampa for New York on Dec. 19 and returning Dec. 29.

"That kind of fare is not going to last," Hobica said. "We absolutely are in a new age of air travel. Airlines post some low fares to look good, but it's hard to get reservations because the seats are not there."

Flights to smaller cities generally will cost more than major destinations. For example, the best Thanksgiving holiday round-trip fare on Travelocity.com between Tampa and Meridian, Miss., leaving Nov. 22 and returning Nov. 30, range from $731 to $1,023.
Tarpon Springs resident Varnavas Zagaris said he's worried about high fares around the holidays and some family members have already booked to avoid paying more.

"There are less flights and the flights are fuller than they've ever been," Zagaris said. "My sister booked fares in the summer for Thanksgiving because that's one of the busiest weekends."

Leisure air fares have increased an average of 18 percent this year, said Bob Harrell, an aviation industry consultant in New York. It's anybody's guess how much higher air fares may rise before the holiday travel season.

What is clear is that jet fuel costs have risen at least 50 percent this year, depending upon individual airline contracts for fuel supplies, and could soar higher if crude oil prices continue to climb.

As a result, airlines are trimming seating capacity.

The latest schedules posted by the Official Airline Guide show flights from Tampa International will have 11.2 percent fewer seats in November and 7 percent fewer seats in December compared with a year ago.

Stephen Mitchell, a Tampa lawyer and chairman of the Hillsborough County Aviation Authority, said airlines are using a new business model and rightfully so, because so many are losing money.

"Airlines essentially are getting rid of the back third of the airplane by eliminating discount fares," said Mitchell, a frequent business flyer.

Travel industry experts say the ongoing reduction in capacity makes the chances for late summer or autumn sales for Thanksgiving and Christmas travel less likely than usual.

Booking early, however, ties up money spent on tickets and there's always the chance an airline might reduce fares later if bookings are slow. Southwest Airlines posts discount fares from most destinations on a near daily basis through its online alert service. Other airlines and online travel agencies customarily offer last minute fares a week or two in advance of flights.

The legacy carriers - American, Continental, Delta, Northwest, United and US Airways - offer schedules and reservations as far as 330 days in advance of flights.

Others offer shorter booking periods, with Southwest currently offering schedules through Jan. 9 and JetBlue through Jan. 31.

Southwest opened its holiday schedules on June 26, so it is too early to tell how bookings are shaping up, spokeswoman Marilee Mcinnis said.

"Fares are a bit higher this year over last, anywhere from $16 to $40 depending on the length of flight," she said.

Allegiant Air, a Las Vegas-based discount carrier that plans to resume service by late fall to 15 small city destinations from St. Petersburg-Clearwater International, offers reservations through Dec. 15. It expects to post flights through Christmas soon.

"Assuming the economy doesn't completely fall off a cliff, and fuel prices don't completely go berserk, we would expect very high load factors and very high fares," said Robert Ashcroft, Allegiant's vice president of planning.

"For that reason, potential passengers would be advised to book early."

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