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Tropical Storm Dolly Forms In Western Caribbean

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The Associated Press

Published: July 20, 2008

Updated: 07/20/2008 03:03 pm

TAMPA - The season's fourth named storm formed in the Caribbean Sea today and appears headed for the western Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical Storm Dolly formed a day after the season's third named storm, Tropical Storm Cristobal, formed off the North Carolina coast Saturday.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami have watched the tropical disturbance that became Dolly since last week as it headed toward the Caribbean.

Though forecasters said the disturbance had the potential to become a storm or tropical depression, it faced enough shear to prevent it from becoming stronger as it moved into the western Caribbean near Central America.

A hurricane hunter aircraft that flew through the disturbance this morning found a closed eye and winds well above the 39 mph threshold for a tropical storm. Dolly is a large storm with winds of more than 35 mph extending 225 miles to the northeast, northwest and southeast of the center.

With winds of about 45 mph, Dolly is expected to cross the Yucatan Peninsula tonight . Though crossing land will weaken the storm slightly, forecasters said Dolly should emerge into the southwestern Gulf on Monday intact enough to gain strength over warm Gulf waters.

The computer forecast models are split on where Dolly will go after leaving the Yucatan.
Some models take the storm into northern Mexico while others bring it to south Texas.

The official forecast calls for the storm's winds to increase to about 65 mph before Dolly hits land again. However, some models call for it to become stronger and forecasters said Dolly could become a hurricane.

Meanwhile Cristobel is expected to stay offshore and avoid a direct hit on the United States mainland. The storm has encountered some dry air which is hindering its development.

Cristobel formed from the area of low pressure that crossed Florida last week and brought Wednesday's widespread rain before heading into the Atlantic near Jacksonville.

Forecasters expect Cristobel's winds to peak at about 55 mph but the storm is not expected to last long before it gets absorbed by an area of low pressure by Tuesday or Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Bertha is finished as far as the hurricane center is concerned. Forecasters said the storm has lost its tropical characteristics with its strongest winds drifting away from its center.

The hurricane center stopped issuing advisories on Bertha today as the season's first hurricane shifted into an area of severe weather in the Atlantic. Even though no longer technically a tropical storm, Bertha will keep its winds of 60 mph or more for a while longer as it goes into the north Atlantic.

The hurricane center is also looking at a small area of low pressure about 300 miles southeast of Bermuda, though forecasters say the possibility of it becoming better organized is low.

Contact reporter Neil Johnson at (813) 259-7731 or njohnson@tampatrib.com.

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