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Can The Rays Do It? It Can't Be Predicted

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By MARTIN FENNELLY | The Tampa Tribune

Published: July 21, 2008

ST. PETERSBURG - They can.

They can't.

The Rays can make the playoffs if they play like they did their first two games off the All-Star break, rousing wins against Blue Jays pitchers A.J. Burnett and Roy Halladay.

They can't if they play like they did in Sunday's interminably long and deflating 9-4 loss to Toronto. It felt like the 0-7 stretch before the break.

It's clear that these Rays are more Friday and Saturday's child rather than Sunday's orphan. But you still can get an argument as to whether it will all add up, even in your own head.

It's the big question.

There are two answers.

They can.

They can't.

Good Pitching, Trop Are Keys

They can if they get the kind of wondrous starting pitching James Shields and Matt Garza gave them Friday and Saturday.

They can't if they get the muck Edwin Jackson dished out Sunday. Jackson lasted less than five innings (the Rays are 0-7 his season when he doesn't go at least six) and brain cramped his way to a two- and three-run homer.

They can because even with Sunday's loss this team is a terror at the Trop - a 38-15 record. Only the Red Sox and Cubs are better in their yards.

They can't until they find a way to win in Boston and New York.

They can because preseason favorite Detroit has spent too much energy getting back to .500, and because Detroit, Minnesota and the White Sox will take turns knocking each other off, and who's Oakland, anyway?

They can't because the Yankees are coming to life, 41/2 back and closing, and because, well, yoo-hoo, Oakland is in town and will start three lefties in three days, and the Rays have trouble with lefties until they say different.

They can because they keep sprinkling magic dust, like Ben Zobrist's two-run homer that helped beat Toronto on Friday.

They can't because, c'mon, Ben Zobrist?

They can because Manager Joe Maddon and baseball ops chief Andrew Friedman haven't swung and missed much this season, so they might find a right-handed bat and some bullpen help, and maybe another starter, even if it includes bringing up phenom David Price, because if he's better then Jackson and Andy Sonnanstine, why wait?

They can't because who knows with Troy Percival's hamstring? Percival came off the DL again Sunday and pitched a scoreless ninth.

They can because besides being a lock for rookie of the year, Evan Longoria could be a dark horse for MVP. He hit another homer Sunday. If this kid jacks 30 homers, knocks in 100 runs and keeps churning out fielding gems and major moments, why not Longo?

They can't unless B.J. Upton, Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena join the fun and take at least some of this second half into their own hands. Your best need to be your best when it counts, and Upton, Crawford and Pena haven't been close. That has to end - soon.

Kazmir, Defense Must Step Up

They can if Scott Kazmir, who faces Oakland tonight, has the kind of second half he did in 2007, when there were nights when he was simply the best in baseball.

They can't if Kazmir pitches like he has in his past seven starts (1-4, 4.97 ERA).

They can if the defense, stellar for most of the first half, comes out of its recent fog. The return of Jason Bartlett at shortstop will help more than we could have imagined at the start of this season.

They can if this bullpen keeps answering.

They can't because J.P. Howell and Grant Balfour haven't pitched in a real September.

They can because no matter what anyone says about experience, the young Rays will be fresher than Boston and New York down the stretch.

They can't because some Rays talked about being mentally tired before the break (no one ever said worst to first would be easy). But if they were tired then, what about 40 games from now?

They can because they have a combined winning record against American League teams with winning records and the Red Sox are 21-32 on the road.

They can't because they're only 19-25 on the road themselves, with a six-game season-maker-or-breaker to Fenway Park and Yankee Stadium in early September, not to mention a seven-game trip to end the regular season.

They can because they're still the best story in baseball.

They can't because, well, they haven't done it yet.

They can.

They can't.

Onward.

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