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Published: June 1, 2008
BAGHDAD - U.S. military deaths plunged in May to the lowest monthly level in more than four years and civilian casualties were down sharply, too, as Iraqi forces assumed the lead in offensives in three cities and a truce with Shiite extremists took hold.
Many Iraqis, however, as well as U.S. officials and private security analysts, are uncertain whether the current lull is the start of a long-term trend or is simply a breathing spell like so many others before.
U.S. commanders also warn the relative peace is fragile, because no lasting political pacts have been reached among the Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish communities.
Talks on returning Sunnis to the government broke down last week, and tensions among rival Shiite parties remain high despite a May 11 truce that ended weeks of bloody fighting in Baghdad's Sadr City.
Iraqis have experienced lulls in the past, notably after the January 2005 elections, only to see violence flare again.
The figures for May are encouraging, especially coming as the United States continues withdrawing the nearly 30,000 reinforcements that President Bush sent to Iraq early last year to curb the wave of Shiite-Sunni violence.
All five of the "surge brigades" that were rushed to Iraq last year will be gone by July, lowering the troop strength to about 140,000, U.S. officials say. There are now about 155,000 U.S. troops in Iraq.
At least 21 U.S. troops were killed in May - four in non-hostile incidents. That's one more than the lowest monthly figure of the war, set in February 2004.
Iraqi deaths also declined.
At least 532 Iraqi civilians and security troopers were killed in May, according to figures compiled by The Associated Press from Iraqi police and military reports. That's down sharply from April's figure of 1,080 and the lowest monthly total this year, the count shows.
The count includes 10 people killed Saturday when a suicide bomber blew himself up at a police checkpoint in Hit.
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