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U.S. Leadership Needed On Climate Change

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By TONY BLAIR Special to The Washington Post

The Tampa Tribune

Published: June 2, 2008

The climate change bill that senators are to begin debating this week is a hugely important signal of intent on behalf of U.S. legislators. Yes, negotiations could still alter the legislation. But the bill's core proposition is correct: Unless the United States radically reduces its greenhouse gas emissions, along with other major emitters, the damage to the climate will be irreversible.
Radical reduction is unlikely to happen through voluntary action alone. Measures in the bill, through a mandatory cap-and-trade scheme, would reduce emissions 70 percent from 2005 levels by 2050. These cuts would be based on a carbon market incentive system that moves with the grain of action around the globe.

Over the past few years, the debate on climate change has shifted profoundly. The scientific consensus that human activity is causing global warming has become overwhelming. The effect of unabated climate change is shocking and, as was shown by the report of Sir Nicholas Stern - the first authoritative study of the economics of climate change, commissioned by the British government in 2006 - it is far riskier economically to ignore climate change than to act to abate it.

New environmental technologies, in fact, already drive a multibillion-dollar industry. Last year, an estimated $148 billion was invested in clean-energy technologies, companies and projects, a 60 percent increase from 2006.

Round the planet, people are developing exciting technologies, changing their behavior and agitating for action so that responsibility on the environment will come in a way that is consistent with necessary economic growth.

Much is happening abroad. Europe has introduced the Emissions Trading System, with over half of emissions now tradable; despite the early teething troubles to be expected from any new policy framework, the system is delivering emissions reductions and sending a clear, market-based signal to companies across the continent. Hanging over all of this progress, however, is a political reality: There will be no consequential action on climate change unless there is a global deal. For that to happen, the United States has to lead to ensure that we have an effective agreement in which China and India take part.

That's why the legislation sponsored by Sens. Barbara Boxer, Joe Lieberman and John Warner matters. It says - and shows - that America will act. It will allow the United States to say to others: You must act, too.

The U.N. process has produced the formula: There should be common but differentiated obligations for developing and developed nations. A great ambition, but what does it mean? That is the subject of the project I am leading that will produce its first report this month.

Without an American commitment, a global deal is impossible. This is an important moment where the United States can show strong leadership. If the United States commits to the 50 percent global target for a reduction in emissions by mid-century and to legislation that mandates action, it will transform the prospects for effective change.

Tony Blair is former British prime minister.

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