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Florida May Be Tough Challenge For Obama

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By WILLIAM MARCH The Tampa Tribune

The Tampa Tribune

Published: June 4, 2008

TAMPA - Barack Obama, who appears to be the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, faces a tough challenge in winning Florida, political insiders and experts say.

Stacked against him: Anger over the Democratic sanctions and boycott of the state, women angry about Hillary Clinton's loss, Hispanic and Jewish voters who don't quite trust him, elderly and military voters who identify with John McCain.

But Obama has vowed to win Florida, and those same experts say he has advantages: personal magnetism, a Pied Piper's appeal to the young, and a nation dissatisfied with a sour economy, soaring costs of daily living, a quagmire war and the ineptitude of the current Republican administration.

The Tampa Tribune contacted a handful of veteran Florida political observers Tuesday. Here are some of their thoughts on Obama's chances in Florida:

•David Colburn, University of Florida historian, head of the Askew Institute on Politics and Society: Despite the anti-GOP climate, demographics make Florida a long shot for Obama.

"The tide is clearly running against the Republican Party nationally, but McCain has sought to distance himself from the incumbent, with some success.

"Obama has a challenge just on the basis of what he's done in the primaries. ... Hispanic voters and seniors have not shown a predilection to vote for him; seniors and military retirees might be inclined to McCain. Working-class voters have not shown an inclination to vote for him...

"He has enough personal magnetism, skill on the stump, that he will be a force. Look at the crowds and money he's generated. But I don't know that I see a way for him to win Florida."

•Mitch Ceasar, Fort Lauderdale lawyer, former state Democratic Party chairman: The current administration's failings doom McCain.

"This is a change election and McCain is Mr. Status Quo. Obama's intellect creates a very clear choice. He really does understand what people are going through, as opposed to a Republican whose domestic and foreign policy is eerily similar to George Bush.

"If you liked the Bush presidency, you'll love John McCain."

•David Johnson, veteran GOP political operative and Tallahassee consultant: The numbers don't add up for Obama in Florida.

"In 2000, the last time a Democrat came close to winning a Florida presidential race, Jewish Democratic voters were energized because of vice presidential nominee Joe Lieberman and African-American voters were energized because of anti-affirmative action initiative One Florida.

"In Obama's case, the African-American vote will certainly be excited, but he's got some problems with the Jewish vote, not just here but nationwide...

"The other challenge he'll have is the conservative Democrats, including Second Amendment supporters.

"On the other hand, McCain's a known commodity. The moronic boycott pledge puts Obama way behind the curve in Florida; they'll have to spend an enormous amount of money just to catch up."

•Former Tampa Mayor Sandy Freedman, a committed Democrat and Hillary Clinton supporter: The bitter primary race has angered women voters, the party's backbone.

"I think he's going to have a hard time winning Florida. There are a lot of very angry people, women in particular, who are unhappy about the sexism of this campaign and will find it hard to vote for him...

"John McCain's supporters are going to paint him - the swiftboating of John Kerry was nothing compared to what we'll see."

•Wayne Bailey, Stetson University political scientist and Democratic Party activist: Pressing issues will make Florida voters forget about the boycott and the Democratic Party sanctions.

"In June 2008, Florida is advantage-McCain, but I believe the political mindset of voters has a short attention span.

"The issues of the activists will dissipate and within a short time will be replaced by concern over $4 gasoline, the developments in Iraq, the housing crisis, warming of the earth and so on. ...

"I'm amazed at his influence among college-age voters. ... For the first time since John F. Kennedy, I'm hearing analysts talk about his charisma."

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Reporter William March can be reached at wmarch@tampatrib.com or (813) 259-7761.

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