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School Officials Worry Enrollment May Drop In Fall

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By MARILYN BROWN | The Tampa Tribune

Published: June 25, 2008

TAMPA - Hillsborough County school officials are bracing for a possible drop in enrollment in August.

"Our concern now is not are we going to grow – it's are we going to go negative?" Bill Person, the district's general director pupil placement and support programs, said today. "We're hoping we remain flat."

The district's final official projection before schools open Aug. 18 is for 191,583 students – a slight increase over the last year's number. Officials said today, however, that number may be high.

"With the way the government has been going, that may be overly optimistic." said Cindy Wood, the district's director of planning and related services. "I'm keeping options wide open. We have no trend anymore."

With rising insurance costs, home foreclosures and the weak economy, some other Florida districts have been losing thousands of students a year as families with children move out of the state.

The district bases its budget on enrollment projections, so if fewer students show up, the district has to adjust its budget, which has already taken hits because of the poor state economy.

A continuing problem for Hillsborough: there is still growth in crowded south Hillsborough and some popular schools while others have empty seats. The state's class size amendment limits how many students can be placed in any school.

Despite the potential of lower district enrollment, the district has capped more than half of its schools for parents to consider as school choice options. The choice program allows families to apply to schools outside their assigned boundary if the choice school has space.

The 73 elementary, 21 middle, two K-8 schools and 17 high schools closed to school choice are projected to be at 95 percent or more of capacity in August. That leaves a bit of "wiggle room" for new students moving into the boundaries, Person said.

Voters approved the class size amendment was approved by voters in 2002. It has been phased in with full implementation delayed until the 2009-10 school year when individual classes must be capped at 18 students per teacher in pre-K through third grade, grades four through eight can have no more than 22 and high school core classes such as English and science are limited to 25 per teacher. In 2008-09, a school average is still allowed, the same as 2007-08.

Despite flat or dwindling numbers, Hillsborough still plans to open eight new schools in the next two years to relieve schools that remain crowded. Families are continueing to move to south Hillsborough and north and west of Plant City while some urban schools are losing students.

Opening in August: Sergeant Paul R. Smith Middle School in Citrus Park; Doris Ross Reddick Elementary in Wimauma and Kimbell Elementary near Temple Terrace.

Slated to open in 2009: Steinbrenner High in northwest Hillsborough; another high school and an elementary school at Interstate 4 and McIntosh Road, and a middle school and an elementary school in Lake Hutto in south Hillsborough.

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