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Outlook On Afghanistan Bleak

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The Washington Post

Published: June 28, 2008

WASHINGTON - WASHINGTON - Violence in Afghanistan will continue to rise this year, as Taliban and al-Qaida fighters have proved resilient and aggressive foes against coalition forces, according to a new Pentagon report issued to Congress on Friday.

Citing a weak Afghan government, struggling economy, massive increases in illegal narcotics production, corruption, growing attacks by insurgents and an increase in civilian casualties, U.S. defense officials said incremental progress in Afghanistan contrasts with significant challenges ahead. The 72-page report, which reviews the war from 2001 through April 10, 2008, offers a bleak assessment of a conflict that commanders think requires more resources and attention.

"Despite many positive developments, Afghanistan continues to face challenges," the report said. "The Taliban regrouped after its fall from power and have coalesced into a resilient insurgency. It now poses a challenge to the Afghan government's authority in some rural areas. ... The Taliban is likely to maintain or even increase the scope and pace of its terrorist attacks and bombings in 2008."

But the report makes clear that the Taliban is not the only concern for U.S. officials, and predicts the possibility of "two distinct insurgencies" emerging in Afghanistan this year, one dominated by the Taliban in the south and a "more complex, adaptive insurgency" in the east, where extremists affiliated with several groups have increased their efforts against U.S. troops and other coalition partners.

Both groups have been cooperating against coalition forces, defense officials said.

The increase of U.S. forces in Afghanistan this year and the increased deployment of fledgling Afghan troops has led to battles with enemy fighters in areas where the insurgents had not been challenged before, officials said, leading insurgents to change tactics and, in some cases, become deadlier.

A senior defense official said roadside bomb attacks increased more than 40 percent in the eastern part of the country during the first half of this year, compared with the first half of 2007.

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