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Lightning's Winning Streak Has A Losing Edge To It

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By ERIK ERLENDSSON

Published: March 17, 2008

TAMPA - As the Lightning keep winning, they keep losing.

With each passing victory last week during a three-game winning streak Tampa Bay crept closer and closer to the teams ahead of them in the standings. Normally at this time of the year, the intention is to chase down the teams ahead of them and nail down a spot in the postseason sweepstakes.

Unfortunately, the only sweepstakes Tampa Bay is playing for right now involves the draft lottery. The Lightning have had a solid hold on the No. 29 spot for quite some time, and that's not a bad spot to be in as it guarantees a top three-pick in the June draft. As it sits through Sunday, the Lightning are four points ahead of Los Angeles, the team that currently resides in the cellar. Tampa Bay is three points behind the No. 27 team, St. Louis.

Under a weighted lottery system, in which all non-playoff teams are eligible, a team may not move up more than four spots from their original slot, so only teams ranked 26th-30th are eligible to "win" the first overall pick. The Lightning do not want to finish outside that threshold. And, obviously, the lower they finish in the standings, the better their chances of landing that No. 1 pick.

The percentage for each of the top five to win the lottery is as follows: 30th - 25 percent; 29th - 18.8 percent; 28th - 14.2 percent; 27th - 10.7 percent and 26th - 8.1 percent. The odds of the last place team retaining the top pick is 48.2 percent based on the number of other teams who can win the lottery but not move up to the top spot.

Since the NHL instituted the lottery format in 1995, the team holding the 30th position has retained the top spot in the draft five times (three times by outright winning the lottery), but only once has that occurred in the last seven tries, not including the 2005 draft which came following the lockout. While the No. 28 team has won the lottery four times, the No. 27 team once and the 26th ranked team twice, the No. 29 team has never moved into the top draft position.

Certainly this isn't any type of request to the team to tank any of the final 10 games left in the season. There is something to be said for finishing strong, building some momentum for next season and getting to know some of the personnel whom the Lightning believes are going to be a part of team next year.

But given the recent success of players who have stepped right into the NHL - Patrick Kane (Chicago), Jonathan Toews (Chicago), Sam Gagner (Edmonton), Jordan Staal (Pittsburgh) - and made an impact within a season or two of their draft year, the odds Tampa Bay can find an impact player who can help out almost immediately is greatly increased.

And if they are fortunate enough to land the top overall pick, something the Lightning have held three times (1992, 1998, 1999), then the name Steve Stamkos will become very well known in these parts. The 6-foot, 180-pound center currently in his second year with the Sarnia Sting of the Ontario Hockey League is believed to be ready to step into the NHL. He currently leads the OHL with 58 goals in 61 games and is fifth in league scoring with 105 points and helped lead Canada to the gold medal at the World Junior Championships with a goal and five assists.

Should the Lightning keep winning, however, they could very well lose out on their chance to land the talented center.

IN THE NEGATIVE: According to a story in The Philadelphia Inquirer, the Southeast Division has a chance to hold a dubious distinction. All five teams in the division entered Sunday having allowed more goals than they have scored. The last time every team in one division finished the season with a negative goal differential was 1979-80, when every team in the Smythe Division gave up more goals than scored. Chicago won the division title that season with a minus-9 differential. Carolina entered Sunday leading the Southeast with a minus-8, while Washington was at minus-2.

Reporter Erik Erlendsson can be reached at (813) 259-7835 or eerlendsson@tampatrib.com.

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