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GOP No Longer Majority In Pinellas
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Published: May 3, 2008
Updated:
TAMPA - For the first time since 1984, Democrats have edged past Republicans in voter registration in Pinellas County, considered by some to be the birthplace of the Florida Republican Party.
On Friday, the Pinellas County Election Supervisor's Web site posted the figures - Republicans, 233,181; Democrats, 233,240; others, 147,800; total, 614,221.
"A historic moment," crowed county Democratic Party Chairwoman Toni Molinaro. "This is just the beginning."
Republicans, including county Chairman Tony DiMatteo, were less impressed. Elections "still depend on performance, and on the quality of the candidate," he said.
He did acknowledge that the change, however, is the latest indication of a trend in Pinellas County, which is becoming more urbanized, younger and less a haven for GOP-oriented Midwestern retirees.
Republicans have held a small registration edge in the county since the 1986 election year. That has made it an exception from the rest of Florida, which still has a plurality of registered Democratic voters - a holdover from the days when Florida was part of the Democratic "solid South."
University of South Florida political scientist Darryl Paulson, a Republican who has written about the history of the Florida party, says the county's GOP leanings can be traced to Midwestern retirees, who came to the Gulf Coast while northeasterners headed for Miami and Fort Lauderdale.
They were organized into a functioning party largely by a lawyer named Bill Cramer, who led a group of candidates to victory in races for Pinellas County government posts in the 1948 election, and became leader of a dominant political machine.
Today, with the county largely built out and no room for new retiree subdivisions, "that flow of retirees has slowed to a trickle," Paulson said. Instead, they're going farther south, to the new Republican heartland of Lee and Collier counties.
"Some Republicans will look at this as a little blip on the radar screen and expect it to return to normal, but I think 'normal' has passed," Paulson said. "Demographics dictate politics, and demographics are trending Democratic."
He said he expects the county to "become a competitive, two-party area," with Republicans concentrated in the north and the Democrats in the more urbanized south.
Molinaro said she thinks the nationwide disillusionment with the Bush presidency, plus interest in the primary between Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama, also are part of the reason.
Republican voter registration dominance in Pinellas peaked in the 1990s, reaching margins of 30,000 or more - 239,000 to 209,365 in the 1992 presidential election, for example.
Democrats began closing that gap rapidly after 2000. Registration for January's 2008 presidential primary was 230,434 Republicans and 226,862 Democrats.
Ironically, Paulson said, even while Pinellas had more Republican registrants and more Republicans holding local offices, it has been more likely to vote Democratic in national races than its neighbor, Hillsborough.
Hillsborough, like much of the rest of Florida, has historically had a Democratic majority or plurality, but has voted largely Republican in the past several election cycles.
Reporter William March can be reached at (813) 259-7761 or wmarch@tampatrib.com.
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Reader Comments
Posted by ( Bonsai ) on May 3, 2008 at 7:09 a.m. ( Suggest removal )
Uh oh - watch out Bill Young. You may actually have an opponent next election.
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Posted by ( MrShrek ) on May 3, 2008 at 7:30 a.m. ( Suggest removal )
The times are a changin' boys and girls....And its about time! But Its not just in Pinellas Co. folks , its a National trend. What I guess i'm tryin' to say here , is that there will NOT be a Rethuglican in the Whitehouse next year , unless they're taking food orders or cleaning the bathrooms.
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Posted by ( welshiesdad ) on May 3, 2008 at 8 a.m. ( Suggest removal )
Big whoop...
I vote for the candidate not the party...
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Posted by ( Bonsai ) on May 3, 2008 at 8:35 a.m. ( Suggest removal )
Rethuglican - I like that.
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Posted by ( Bonsai ) on May 3, 2008 at 8:36 a.m. ( Suggest removal )
So then welshiesdad it's a popularity contest with you. Gee he's cute, I think I'll vote for him. What a maroon.
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Posted by ( Old_FL_Crab ) on May 3, 2008 at 9:05 a.m. ( Suggest removal )
No, Bonsai, It's not a popularity contest, it's trying to pick the best candidate, or in some years (like this one) the lesser of two evils. Vote "your party right or wrong"? Every election? Look up lemmings, and sheep, herd instinct.
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Posted by ( kiop ) on May 3, 2008 at 9:28 a.m. ( Suggest removal )
I must not be part of the trend.. I won't be voting for a socialist this November, sorry. I don't want my taxes raised, I don't want us to surrender the war.. i don't want the government growing bigger in order to control the little puppets who can't support themselves. McCain '08!!
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Posted by ( whasup ) on May 3, 2008 at 11:22 a.m. ( Suggest removal )
I just read a disturbing article on John McCain's opinion, and VOTE, against women being able to file suit more than one paycheck after their employer pays them less than men for equal jobs. He essentially voted that if women didn't find out their employer was ripping them off right away, then he didn't believe we should Waste The Court's Time allowing them to file suit after being ripped off by their employer for years. It just put us back 40 years. Vote Democratic. McCain is the Worst candidate for women. That's your WIFE'S pay, men. That means your household income is lower than it should be and McCain doesn't care.
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Posted by ( picogator ) on May 3, 2008 at 11:25 a.m. ( Suggest removal )
OK, Hillsborough, wake up. Let's get rid of (vote out) all these Repubs.
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Posted by ( wiseolcat ) on May 3, 2008 at 11:29 a.m. ( Suggest removal )
What the so-called experts have overlooked is that the largest and fastest growing voting block in Pinellas County is actually elderly and female, many of whom have purposefully switched party affiliation. However, it will be a totally different story come November if Hillary doesn't win her party's nomination.
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Posted by ( mamac ) on May 3, 2008 at 5:18 p.m. ( Suggest removal )
ok - cool = then those voters who are voting democrat can be happy the dnc chose not to count their votes - like welshiesdad said - vote the candidate NOT the party - and there are thugs throughout every political party - stop inhaling.
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Posted by ( smackie13 ) on May 3, 2008 at 11:40 p.m.
(This comment was removed by the site staff.)