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Who Will Rays Draft? Let The Guessing Begin

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By MARC LANCASTER

The Tampa Tribune

Published: May 4, 2008

BOSTON - Rays scouting director R.J. Harrison spent Thursday night at his home in Phoenix, and that in itself was somewhat newsworthy.

By Harrison's count, he might spend only two more nights in his own bed before baseball's first-year player draft, which is June 5-6 at Disney's Wide World of Sports.

This is the stretch run for Harrison and his staff of area scouts and national cross-checkers, as lists are narrowed and evaluations get more pointed in the final weeks before the Rays make someone a very rich man.

Picking first overall in the draft for the second consecutive year - the first major-league team ever to do so - the Rays still have plenty of work to do before making the call a month from now. The uncertainty that lingers over who will go No. 1 this year is quite a contrast to the way everything went down last summer, when the Rays jumped on Vanderbilt LHP David Price without hesitation.

"Honestly, we went into the year pretty much with David in the catbird's seat and he did not do one thing the whole year to make us even hesitate in our thoughts," Harrison said. "This year it's a more competitive situation."

That means more legwork for Harrison and his staff. They met about two weeks ago to narrow a list of contenders for the top pick down to five, and Harrison is headed back out across the country in the coming weeks for face-to-face chats with them. He already has met with some of them but wants to sit down with everyone to try to get a better feel for their personalities.

"It'd be very uncomfortable for me to recommend we take one of these guys with the first pick in the draft if I never shook their hand or had an opportunity for conversation with them," Harrison said.

Who will he be visiting? The Rays won't get into specifics, but it's a safe bet their choice will come from the following pool: Vanderbilt 3B Pedro Alvarez, Griffin (Ga.) High SS Tim Beckham, Florida State C Buster Posey, Missouri RHP Aaron Crow, University of San Diego LHP Brian Matusz and Riverside (Calif.) Patriot High C Kyle Skipworth.

Like his former Commodores teammate Price, Alvarez has been ranked atop Baseball America's prospect list throughout the college and high school season. He maintained that standing despite breaking a bone in his hand in the season opener Feb. 22. Alvarez - who, it should be noted, is a Scott Boras client - returned to the lineup April 1 and was hitting .299 with three homers and a .413 on-base percentage in 21 games entering the weekend.

There have been rumblings the Rays won't take Alvarez because of the investment they have made in Evan Longoria, but the team denies that will have an impact.

"Just because of Evan, we certainly wouldn't run away," Harrison said. "Certainly if we thought Pedro Alvarez was the best player in the draft for us, we would certainly find someplace for him to land."

That might be right field, or first base. Or the Rays could go in a different direction altogether.

Crow and Matusz are polished pitchers and Beckham has all the tools, but the Rays might be tempted to go with a catcher. They don't have much organizational depth at the position, and Skipworth or Posey would help there. Posey's stock seems to have risen lately. The converted shortstop who sometimes takes the mound to close games for the Seminoles had posted a .470 average and 13 homers entering the weekend.

When the Rays' scouts and front-office personnel congregate in the days leading up to the draft to make the final call on who they'll pick, Harrison doesn't expect the decision to be unanimous.

"But I have a real strong feeling that whichever way we decide to go, nobody's going to go, 'Oh you've got to be kidding me,'" he said.

Their options are appealing, just not clear-cut.

"Trust me, I think about it all the time all day long - this guy, that guy," Harrison said. "In my mind, I have moments of clarity and then I have moments of, 'What about this?' and 'What about that?'"

Another month and he'll be able to rest easy.

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