TBO.com - TBO is Tampa Bay Online

Democrats Debate Value Of Votes, Delegates

ADVERTISEMENT

By WILLIAM MARCH

The Tampa Tribune

Published: May 6, 2008

TAMPA - Unless today's Indiana and North Carolina primaries produce a surprising upset, the Hillary Rodham Clinton-Barack Obama stalemate will continue, ultimately to be decided by superdelegates.

An Obama win in Indiana, with its large rural and blue-collar populations, could allay doubts about his ability to connect with older, more conservative Democrats, said Wayne Bailey, a political scientist at Stetson University and party activist who's neutral in the race.

In North Carolina, where 38 percent of registered Democrats are black, Clinton could prove that Obama doesn't have a lock on Southern states and black voters.

As of Monday, Clinton led in most polls in Indiana and Obama in North Carolina. But neither had a large margin, and gaps in both states were narrowing.

The most likely outcome is a continuation of the stalemate, Bailey said.

Clinton, he said, is in the more vulnerable position. If Obama won both states, "you'd expect her money to begin drying up; that could take her out."

But even then, he said, pressure on Clinton from her supporters to stay in the race would be intense. No candidate gives up easily when the presidency is at stake.

"Your own constituents can make it like trying to jump off a merry-go-round that's still moving," he said.

Wins by Clinton in both states, Bailey said, would stagger Obama's seemingly inexorable march to the nomination.

Votes Versus Delegates

Obama and Clinton both claim to be the candidate most deserving of support from the superdelegates, those unpledged delegates who can vote for either candidate.

Obama makes that claim based on his lead among pledged delegates chosen in primaries and caucuses, while Clinton claims a lead in the popular vote - a claim Obama disputes.

Leading among pledged delegates, "gives him credibility that Hillary Clinton does not bring with her," said Frank Sanchez, a top Obama fundraiser in Tampa.

Many Democrats are worried about the reaction within the party - particularly from young and black voters - if the superdelegates were to overturn the results of the primaries and caucuses that chose the pledged delegates.

But in a recent conference call with reporters, Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell, a Clinton backer, told reporters popular votes are a fairer indication, "because the pledged delegates are elected in a very undemocratic way."

Much of Obama's delegate lead consists of delegates won in caucus states, chosen not by voters in polling places but by party activists attending meetings.

According to an analysis by Florida party activist Jon Ausman, delegates chosen in primaries each represent an average of 11,161 votes cast, while those chosen in caucuses each represent an average of only 1,976 caucus-goers.

Obama's lead doesn't count delegates from Florida or Michigan, both of which Clinton won, but which were disallowed by the national party because the two states held primaries earlier than party rules allow.

Three states given approval to hold early primaries - Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina - broke the same rules by moving their dates, and weren't sanctioned.

Even in primaries, the complex formula Democrats use to award delegates sometimes creates seemingly inconsistent outcomes. The proportional formula gives some delegates to second- and third-place finishers.

Under that system, most delegates are awarded according to the outcome of the race within a congressional district. Although Florida's delegates are in limbo, its results illustrate how the formula can skew the results:

•In Florida's 6th Congressional District, Clinton won with 42 percent to Obama's 34 percent - but each got two delegates. The reason: Under party rules, John Edwards, with 19 percent, had to get one delegate, and the district only awarded five.

•In District 1, Obama with 35 percent and Clinton with 34 percent were virtually tied, but Obama got two delegates, while Clinton and Edwards, with 26 percent, got one each.

In Pennsylvania, Clinton won the primary 55 percent to 45 percent, but got a much narrower delegate margin, 83-73.

Votes Not Clear Either

But popular votes aren't all that clear either.

Clinton claims a lead including the Florida and Michigan votes - but Obama's name wasn't on the ballot in Michigan, and neither candidate campaigned in Florida.

Further, in four caucus states - Iowa, Maine, Nevada and Washington - the caucus attendance, which is usually considered as part of the popular vote, was never reported.

Florida Sen. Bill Nelson, a Clinton backer, argues the Florida votes should be recognized. Voters, he said, can't be blamed for a voluntary boycott by the candidates and knew as much as they needed to know about the candidates when they voted.

Sanchez responded that everywhere Obama has campaigned, he has closed the gap between himself and Clinton, and probably would have in Florida.

Regardless of today's outcomes, superdelegates face a touchy decision.

Superdelegate Mitch Ceasar of Fort Lauderdale said he'll decide on the basis of who he thinks is most likely to win in November, regardless of pledged delegate totals.

That's not undemocratic, he said. "The point everybody misses is that you can't take the politics out of politics," he said, "there's winners and losers.'

He thinks the system needs changing. "I think we've seen enough in this cycle to tell us that before the next cycle we need to overhaul the entire process," he said.

Reporter William March can be reached at (813) 259-7761 or wmarch@tampatrib.com

Share this:

Loading Comments...

Email Print

ADVERTISEMENT