TBO.com - TBO is Tampa Bay Online

Long-Running Florida Drought May Be In Its Final Throes

ADVERTISEMENT

By NEIL JOHNSON | The Tampa Tribune

Published: May 7, 2008

Updated: 05/07/2008 02:53 pm

TAMPA - The end of a grueling drought that started in 2006 with the state's third driest year on record could be in sight.

By nearly every measure of drought, conditions in Florida -- and around Tampa Bay -- are far better than in May 2007.

"It looks like this drought is in the process of going away," said Ben Nelson, state meteorologist.

A year ago, 99.6 percent of Florida was in some level of drought. Now, 69 percent of the state is free of drought conditions.

The number of wildfires and acres burned this year are a fraction of wildfire activity the same time in 2007.

Aquifer levels in Hillsborough, Pasco and Pinellas counties are more than two feet above where they were May 1, 2007. In May 2007, flow in the Hillsborough River was an 8 on a scale of 1-100. This year it is an 84 in that same scale.

A wet start to 2008 helped. Rain at Tampa International Airport the first four months of the year was more than 3.5 inches above normal, or more than an extra month's rain for this time of year.

"We were very fortunate this winter with fronts," Nelson said. "We'll take all the help we can get from Mother Nature."

And perhaps four to six weeks away the summer thunderstorms.

"The rainy season is right in front of us," Nelson said.

The agency that regulates water use in West Central Florida is more cautious.

Things are improving, but the drought isn't finished, said Robyn Felix, spokeswoman with the Southwest Florida Water Management District

Rainfall in the 16 counties of the water management district for the past two years still is 16 inches below normal, she said.

"If we get above average-rainfall in the summer, with the head start we've got now, we might get out of the drought," she said.

Also, water levels in lakes have not rebounded. Lakes recover from drought more slowly than aquifers or rivers. Lakes lose water from seepage underground -- until groundwater levels rise -- and from evaporation.

Improving conditions won't mean an immediate end to restrictions limiting lawn watering to once a week. The restrictions are in place until June 30.

"There's been no discussion of lifting the restrictions," Felix said.

There is no specific rainfall amount that would trigger a recommendation to ease the restrictions, she said. The district staff would also look at rain, river flow, aquifer levels and lakes.

The district governing board will talk about the restrictions at its May 27 meeting and make any decision at the June 24 meeting.

The district staff has not developed a recommendation on whether to ease the restrictions, Felix said.

A lessening of drought conditions is good news going into May, when the danger of large wildfires peaks.

Last year in May, an index of wildfire danger with 0 as saturated conditions and 800 as desertlike stood at 524 across the state. Now it is 389.

May 2007 was an especially brutal month for wildfires, with 792 fires blackening more than 147,000 acres.

During that month alone, nearly 10 times as many acres burned as have so far this year.

Still, forestry officials aren't ready to break out the party hats and noisemakers.

"We're anticipating May will not be as bad as last year, but it will still be active," said Matt Weinell, fire resources manager with the state Division of Forestry.

The fire danger index creeps up 10 to 15 points a day, he said. And thunderstorms that begin occurring in late May cause fires in areas not soaked by summer rains.

It usually is July before storms are widespread enough to ease the fire danger.

"We've still got all of May and June to get through," Weinell said.

Reporter Neil Johnson can be reached at (813) 259-7731 or njohnson@tampatrib.com.

Share this:

Loading Comments...

Email Print

ADVERTISEMENT