TBO.com - Tampa Bay Online
Florida Hispanics Now Lean Toward Democrats
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Published: May 9, 2008
TAMPA - Florida now has more Hispanic voters registered as Democrats than Republicans.
The difference is small – less than a percentage point. But it reflects a long-term demographic shift that could benefit Democrats: the increasing dominance of non-Cubans, particularly Puerto Ricans, among Floridians of Hispanic descent.
For years, conservative, anti-Castro Cubans, mainly in South Florida, have made the Hispanic vote a GOP bastion in Florida. But waves of Puerto Ricans, Mexicans, Colombians, Venezuelans and others are turning Florida's Hispanic cohort into more of a swing vote, experts say.
The figures showing the shift were compiled by the state Democratic Party, based on voter registration data supplied by the state Division of Elections. They show that although neither party has a majority of Hispanic voters, Democrats now hold a narrow plurality.
The Florida Democratic Party calls the change "a major boon to Florida Democrats and a potential deathblow to Republican politics here for the long term."
Republicans don't dispute the figures, but they did question their significance, saying Hispanic Republicans are more faithful, regular voters, and that the party's outreach programs are aimed at reversing the trend.
In fact, those outreach programs may be the reason the Democratic Party released the figures this week, in hope of dampening publicity about a GOP Hispanic event this weekend.
Today, a group of big-name GOP luminaries will convene a Hispanic Republican Leadership Conference in Orlando, part of a high-profile effort by the state party to intensify its outreach to minorities.
Gov. Charlie Crist, Sen. Mel Martinez, outgoing state House Speaker Marco Rubio and U.S. Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez are expected to appear before a group of 200 to 300 Hispanics at the event, hosted by state party Chairman Jim Greer.
"The Republican Party is actively reaching out to Hispanics and registering them to vote versus spending our time sending out a press release touting that we have a few hundred more voters than the other party does," said party spokeswoman Erin VanSickle. "The Republican Party will continue attracting Hispanic voters because we share the same values: a strong family, hard work and personal freedom."
The figures come from monthly voter registration reports provided to the state parties by the Division of Elections. The parties analyze the data.
Only since January 2006 have the data included Hispanics as a separate demographic group. They show a gradual, steady increase since then in the percentage registered Democratic, or no-party and minor party. The Republican percentage has declined correspondingly.
Overall, the number of voters who identify themselves as Hispanic increased from 1.07 million to 1.18 million in that time.
Of those:
Democrats have increased their numbers by about 64,000, from 33.27 percent to 35.5 percent of the total. More than half the increase has come during this calendar year.
No-party and minor party members increased by about 41,000, from 28.49 percent to 29.28 percent.
Republicans have increased by about 7,500 but dropped from 38.24 percent to 35.22 percent of the total.
University of South Florida political scientist Susan MacManus said the shift is partly a generational change.
"Younger Hispanics are trending more Democratic, just like younger people of all races and ethnicities," said MacManus, who researches demographics in politics.
Nationwide, Hispanics tend to be swing-voters or to lean Democratic. Florida has been the exception because of its large Cuban community, 31 percent of the state's Hispanics in the 2000 Census.
The GOP's anti-Castro policies have cemented their alliance with the party, particularly with the Bush brothers and their father, the first President Bush. They are also known for unusually strong voter turnout.
Florida International University political scientist Dario Moreno, who studies Florida Hispanics, said the Democratic shift has been predicted for some time because of immigration patterns.
"The issue, however, is will they vote," he said of the new Hispanic Democrats.
In 2004, Moreno compared Hispanic voter turnout in Osceola County, home of many of the state's new Puerto Rican citizens, to the Cuban heartland of Miami-Dade County. He found 49 percent turnout in Osceola and 70 percent in Miami-Dade.
"My guess is the higher the turnout for any election, the more the Democrats will benefit," he said.
Florida Democrats already appear to have realized some political benefit.
Democrats commonly say, though Republicans dispute, that Florida Hispanics were more likely to vote Democratic than Republican in the 2006 election, including congressional races and Sen. Bill Nelson's re-election over Katherine Harris.
MacManus said it's debatable because of uncertainty about the accuracy of exit polls in the Orlando area, home of many Puerto Ricans. But the outcome was probably at least even for Democrats, she said.
Non-Cuban Hispanics are far from uniformly Democratic, Moreno noted.
Puerto Ricans who move to Florida, usually from the U.S. Northeast or from Puerto Rico, tend to be more affluent and more conservative than other Puerto Ricans, he said, and tend to be "part of the Florida swing vote."
He said Florida Puerto Ricans voted 2-1 for Al Gore against George W. Bush in 2000, but they split 50-50 in Bush's 2004 race against John Kerry. They backed Jeb Bush in all three of his races for governor.
Moreno estimates that Hispanics make up 11 percent to 14 percent of the voters who go to the polls in a typical Florida election. Even though Cubans are less than a third of all Florida Hispanics, they make up about half those Hispanic voters because of their strong turnout, he said.
Reporter William March can be reached at (813) 259-7761 or wmarch@tampatrib.com.
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Reader Comments
Posted by ( kimbo ) on May 9, 2008 at 3:21 p.m. ( Suggest removal )
Why is it the better informed people vote Republican, the others just run their badmouth.
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Posted by ( JailBadJudges ) on May 9, 2008 at 3:27 p.m. ( Suggest removal )
Better informed vote Republican? That's funny. The red states are primarily rural while the blue states are in the higher education higher income areas.
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Posted by ( dhster ) on May 9, 2008 at 3:27 p.m. ( Suggest removal )
It's probably because they want the Dems to allow their illegal family and friends to stay and take our jobs, welfare, and schools
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Posted by ( Quagmire ) on May 9, 2008 at 3:38 p.m. ( Suggest removal )
I've been asking myself that same question for an awful long time kimbo.
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Posted by ( Claylisa ) on May 9, 2008 at 3:41 p.m. ( Suggest removal )
Cubans only vote GOP cos of the anti-Castro stance of the Repubs. We all know they are loyal to that.
If and when the embargo does end, we'll see how bueno it is to be a Republican then.
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Posted by ( BecauseISaidSo ) on May 9, 2008 at 3:58 p.m. ( Suggest removal )
Speaking of poorly informed... this one is for you dhster.
Since they mention Puerto Ricans as the primary reason for this shift, then perhaps you should know that Puerto Ricans are born American citizens (yes, even the ones on the island) and therefore, there are no illegal family members for them to bring over.
Perhaps your time would be better spent with an American History book than in a message board. Then maybe you could make an educated contribution to the discussion instead of biggoted statements.
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Posted by ( Claylisa ) on May 9, 2008 at 4:06 p.m. ( Suggest removal )
BecauseISaidSo...now that's what I call a "pimp slap".
Stop crying, dhster. Wipe ya nose.
Xenophobes always speak outta they're a##es.
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Posted by ( whyn ) on May 9, 2008 at 4:27 p.m. ( Suggest removal )
The Socialist message of the Democrats is acting like a Sirens song to a bunch of love sraved sailors- be careful what you wish for.
Obama will drive this country in the ground, he is a STAUNCH Marxist!!!
Socialism is his ideal- and whether the Black community will admit it or not he is a racist, as is his wife.
He is the first major step in turning the US in another 3rd world disaster.
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Posted by ( Garbanzo ) on May 9, 2008 at 4:33 p.m. ( Suggest removal )
Please remember that the blue states are those with the HIGHEST rates of educational excellence and the red states are those like Mississippi where people still don't know how to read. SAD! Also, I never have understood the alliance that the Cuban refugee community has had with the Republican party. The Republicans haven't done anything in 50 years to make the lives of Cubans, here in the US or in Cuba any better.
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Posted by ( Dolphin68 ) on May 12, 2008 at 10:33 a.m. ( Suggest removal )
Alright all Latinos. Now is the time to show up to this so-called speaking engagement and rally to show support for a democrat to be in the White House in November. Remember Marco Rubio and Governor Crist are the ones who disenfranchised Florida. There should be some people out in the crowd reminding them to COUNT OUR VOTES!!! I recently attended the rally at the DNC headquarters in Washington, DC on April 30th and if I was close enough to this event, I sure would be there holding up my sign. "THIS FLORIDA NATIVE SAYS COUNT OUR VOTES". Come on people, let's stand up for what democrats believe in and that is to put a democrat back in the White House. My personal choice is Hillary Clinton. She is the strongest candidate to beat John McCain. LET OUR VOICES BE HEARD THIS COMING NOVEMBER!!!
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