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Obama Seeks Decisive Turnout

Tribune file photo by JULIE BUSCH (2007)

Barack Obama drew an enthusiastic crowd last year in Ybor City.

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By WILLIAM MARCH

The Tampa Tribune

Published: May 18, 2008

TAMPA - Barack Obama will return to the Tampa Bay area Wednesday with a wary eye on whether to contest a state he spurned and which, in recent electoral history, has tilted Republican.

Obama strategists will weigh whether it makes political sense as the race progresses to spend millions of dollars and large amounts of the candidate's time contesting Florida against John McCain.

Obama's chances in the Tampa Bay area and Interstate 4 corridor, the most important swing region in the nation's biggest swing state, will be a critical consideration.

Experts say Obama has a shot in the corridor but could face a tough time considering its demographics and voting record and his history so far with voters.

The turnout and reception Obama gets at his rally here Wednesday will be a clue to his chances. And Obama has routinely surprised experts and pundits with his ability to bring people to his cause.

More than a year ago, when he was a little-known, distant second in the Democratic primary, Obama surprised local political insiders by drawing some 2,000 people to a $25-a-person event in Ybor City.

But Obama hasn't made a public appearance in Tampa since then.

If he manages another encouraging turnout at St. Pete Times Forum, it could help convince Florida Democrats and the candidate himself that he could be the first Democrat since Bill Clinton in 1996 to turn the swing state blue.

The Obama campaign won't predict a turnout for Wednesday, but local volunteers said it's figuring to be about 12,000.

That wouldn't be a Tampa record. George W. Bush and John Kerry drew an estimated 15,000 each when both appeared in Tampa the Sunday before Election Day in 2004.

But it would be an unusually large number for a campaign event on a weekday this far from the Nov. 4 election, with a candidate who isn't even officially the nominee.

The Forum holds about 20,000 for hockey games, or more with floor seating.

Event Is Gamble For Obama

The event Wednesday, the first in a three-day Florida tour, is momentous for the campaign - Obama's return after roughly a year during which he, along with the other Democratic candidates, boycotted the state in response to its schedule-busting early primary date.

Obama must re-establish relations with Florida voters, at least some of whom, polls show, resent the boycott.

It's no accident the first day of his tour consists of an event in Tampa followed by one in Orlando, the western and eastern anchors of the I-4 corridor.

But the event is also a gamble for a campaign that so far has at best a rudimentary organization in Florida.

Putting such an event together is immensely complicated, requiring vast crowd control and attention to details ranging from metal detectors and emergency medical technicians to wireless Internet for the media.

What political operatives call "building a crowd," recruiting attendees to avoid an embarrassingly small turnout, is normally a major concern. A poorly organized event makes the candidate look hapless.

But because of the boycott, which lasted until the Jan. 29 primary, and the protracted primary battle against Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton since then, Obama hasn't built much of a Florida organization.

He has only a single paid staff member in the state, a fundraiser. McCain, by comparison, has only three, but as the presumptive nominee, also has the staff and resources of the state Republican Party at his disposal.

Concerned about bringing the event off, the campaign hesitated before deciding to hold a public rally, even though it wanted the publicity a major event would generate, spokesman Josh Earnest confirmed. The decision wasn't final until Thursday.

"In other states where we've done large events, we've had more of an infrastructure," Earnest said. "But we have a very strong and enthusiastic volunteer base in the Tampa Bay area, and we'll be working closely with them."

The Interstate 4 corridor is "a perfect mirror" for the performance of the state in presidential elections, said University of South Florida political scientist Susan MacManus, who researches demographics in politics.

The corridor is usually described as 14 counties in a belt that runs southwest to northeast along Interstate 4, from Sarasota to Daytona Beach, with the Tampa Bay area and the Orlando area as the key population centers.

While North Florida and Southwest Florida vote predominantly Republican and Southeast Florida votes Democratic, the corridor is a swing area, the hinge on which Florida turns politically.

Since at least 1980, the combined votes in those 14 counties have almost perfectly reflected the votes of the state as a whole, MacManus said. That includes Clinton's 1996 victory, the Gore-Bush tie in 2000, and otherwise all Republican victories.

MacManus said the corridor could be a tough nut for Obama to crack:

•Its voter registration is slightly more Republican than the rest of the state.

•It has a substantial percentage of older voters, not Obama's strongest constituency. Many of those voters are pro-military and conservative, and, having lived through the Depression and World War II, focus on experience and stability.

•Among its many suburban voters, Obama could be harmed by questions that have been raised about his religion and patriotism.

But she said Obama also has some advantages in the corridor:

•It has large numbers of non-Cuban Hispanics, particularly in the Orlando area, who tend to lean Democratic.

•It has several large universities, whose student bodies are "heavily engaged, heavily Democratic and heavily for Obama - the most cohesive youth vote we've seen in a long time," she said.

•It has a substantial black vote, though not as much as Democratic Southeast Florida.

MacManus said Florida's large concentration of older voters could hurt Obama statewide, in part because older voters are heavily female, and may be upset about Clinton's loss and the negative campaign.

Independent voters, who for years have been the fastest-growing cohort in Florida, are heavily concentrated in the corridor, but could go for either McCain or Obama.

"They're younger, which helps him, but he has to make the sale," she said.

Obama has another advantage in the state as a whole: After more than a decade of leaning Republican, Florida has shown a slight but significant Democratic trend in voter registration and election results in the past few years.

In 2006, for example, Democrats picked up seven state House seats, two congressional seats and one state Cabinet seat; and Democrats recently have been registering voters faster, including among Hispanics, where this month they first surpassed Republicans.

Campaign Remains Optimistic

Asked about Obama's decision on strategy in Florida, Earnest said he wouldn't "predict what sort of calculations our strategists will make in September," but said the campaign is optimistic about its Florida chances.

"We do anticipate, given what we know now in the middle of May, that there is a terrific opportunity for our campaign in Florida."

Earnest said Obama has proved his ability to win over older voters when he's able to spend time with them - Obama did that in Iowa, he said.

Although analysts have repeatedly charged that Obama is weak among white, blue-collar voters - so-called "Reagan Democrats" - Earnest said Obama has performed well among slightly more affluent, suburban swing voters, who are common in the corridor.

The decision on whether Obama will compete in Florida may already be evident. Since the Pennsylvania primary, Obama hasn't spent three full days in any other state.

"The fact that we are about to spend three solid days in Florida, and the first is a full day in the I-4 corridor, says a lot about our intentions in the general election," Earnest said.

Reporter William March can be reached at (813) 259-7761 or wmarch@tampatrib.com.

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