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Rays' Success Not A Fluke

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By MARC LANCASTER

The Tampa Tribune

Published: May 18, 2008

ST. LOUIS - As the first round of interleague play began this weekend, the Rays stood alone atop the more powerful of baseball's leagues, their record bettered only by the Cubs and Diamondbacks in all of baseball.

Even the most optimistic of observers couldn't have seen that coming. A hot streak here and there? Sure. As Scott Kazmir astutely noted in the opening days of spring training, the starting rotation the Rays had assembled made it more likely they would be able to put together winning streaks - and stop losing skids before they became too protracted.

But this is something else entirely. Take the four-game series the Rays won from the Yankees at Tropicana Field last week. It wasn't just that Tampa Bay came out on top three out of four nights - the Rays were the better team.

Put a healthy Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada in the New York lineup and that might not necessarily be the case, but you can only play the game with those who are available. The Yankees have an aging roster with a patchwork bullpen in front of Mariano Rivera and holes in their starting rotation. The Rays should be ahead of them in the standings.

Despite Saturday's walk-off loss against the Cardinals, the Rays are on pace for 94 wins this season. At this point, it would take a collapse bordering on the indescribable (like going 45-74 the rest of the way) for Tampa Bay to avoid breaking the humble franchise record of 70 wins in a season.

It would still be a shock if the Rays manage to jump from oblivion to the playoffs all in one season, but there are indicators to suggest Tampa Bay should be able to keep doing what it has been doing:

DEFENSE: It's the factor cited most often by Manager Joe Maddon in discussing the team's early success. From the astonishing amount of real estate B.J. Upton and Carl Crawford can cover in the outfield to the invaluable work Jason Bartlett has done in shoring up the middle of the infield, the Rays are better almost across the board on this front.

Baseball Prospectus has a stat called defensive efficiency, which measures the rate at which balls in play are converted into outs, and the Rays were second in the majors in that department through Friday's games. Last year, the Rays' defensive efficiency rating was the worst ever recorded by BP.

PITCHING: The Rays' team ERA is nearly two runs better than last season at this time, and the bullpen entered Saturday leading the majors by limiting opponents to a .213 batting average. It's unreasonable to expect the Rays to continue pitching the way they have, particularly the starters. But there are no longer one, two or three spots in the rotation that lead you to expect defeat before the first pitch is even thrown.

In the last two turns through the rotation, every Rays starter has had at least one outing in which he limited the opposition to one or zero runs while pitching at least six innings. Edwin Jackson and Kazmir have combined for 27 shutout frames the last two times through. The Rays knew Kazmir and James Shields could get on a roll like that, but Jackson, Andy Sonnanstine and Matt Garza are beginning to mix consistency in execution with the talent that has been apparent all along.

RESILIENCY: It says something that the Rays have done what they've done so far this season despite having 11 different players - including key pieces like Kazmir, Garza and Cliff Floyd - spend time on the disabled list through the first month and a half. The Rays have found ways to fill in around them and maintain their level of play, something that hasn't happened in the past (see the offensive collapse when Upton went on the DL last summer).

Beyond that, the Rays have bounced back from tough games and series as if they never happened. Maddon has called the way the Rays rebounded from being swept at Fenway Park to win nine of their last 12 the biggest point of the season.

By now, it seems a given that the Rays are in the midst of what will be their best season ever. It's just a matter of how far they'll be able to ride it.

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