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End Is Near In Delegate Squabble

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By BILLY HOUSE and WILLIAM MARCH

The Tampa Tribune

Published: May 31, 2008

Updated: 05/31/2008 12:13 am

WASHINGTON - An obscure subset of the Democratic National Committee today could help write the final chapter to Hillary Rodham Clinton's presidential campaign.

Or it could thrust Florida into the eye of another history-making political storm - a place Florida is uncomfortably accustomed to being.

The DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee will decide whether to restore Florida's and Michigan's presidential convention delegates, fully, partially or not at all.

That will decide, in effect, whether the Jan. 29 Florida primary votes count, and it will make or break Clinton's attempt to win some profit in delegates from the two primaries.

There has been speculation, and some urging from party leaders, that an adverse decision should persuade Clinton to end her presidential bid - perhaps as early as next week - leaving Barack Obama the presumed nominee.

But Clinton also could choose to press her case with an appeal to the party's convention credentials committee.

That would mean a vote at the Democratic convention in August, maybe a floor fight over Florida and Michigan delegates - and another Florida presidential hurricane reminiscent of the 2000 recount.

Will Clinton push her cause that far?

In the past, she has indicated she was willing to, but she appears to have backed away recently from an absolute commitment.

"We think it is not useful to cross streams before coming to them," said Clinton strategist Harold Ickes, himself a rules committee member, Friday.

But he and other top Clinton advisors held to the campaign's position that all 211 of Florida's convention delegates and all 157 of Michigan's should be seated.

Obama, meanwhile, has indicated he is willing to accept a compromise over the delegates, even though any compromise will benefit Clinton to some extent.

Floridians making arguments to the committee today will be:

•Jon Ausman, a member of the Democratic National Committee from Tallahassee, who filed the appeal challenging the ban on Florida's delegation.

•State Sen. Arthenia Joyner of Tampa, speaking for the Clinton campaign.

•U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, arguing for the state Democratic Party.

•Rep. Robert Wexler of Boca Raton, speaking for the Obama camp.

Outside the hotel here where the meeting will be held, at least 300 Floridians, including some from the Tampa Bay area, will be among hundreds of others participating in demonstrations organized by Clinton supporters in favor of counting the Florida votes.

Trying To Find A Middle Ground

The committee meeting today, made up of 30 party leaders from across the country, last year stripped Florida and Michigan of their delegates for holding their presidential primaries too early, against party rules.

About a dozen members publicly support Clinton, and eight - including the only Floridian, Allan Katz of Tallahassee - support Obama. The members insist they can decide the matter impartially.

Party activists in both camps want a compromise to end the issue so Democrats in the two key battleground states will be energized, not further alienated.

Obama's goal is "making certain Florida is represented at the convention," Wexler said.

Clinton's win in the Jan. 29 Florida primary, 50 percent to Obama's 37 percent, would normally give her 105 pledged delegates to his 67, a margin of 38.

John Edwards, with 14 percent of the vote, got 13 delegates.

The committee could uphold the ban, seating none of those delegates, or revoke it completely, restoring them all. But there are several options for a middle ground.

An analysis by the party's lawyers, released last week, suggests that under party rules, Florida should get no more than half its normal delegate votes.

It also recommends a delegate allocation procedure that would reduce Clinton's winning margin by more than half, cutting it from 38 to as few as six pledged delegates, according to Ausman's calculations.

It's All Up To The Committee

But at the same time, the analysis appears to suggest the committee has discretion to choose almost any plan it wishes.

Alternatives, including cutting the existing delegation in half or seating all the delegates but with only half a vote each, would give Clinton exactly half the margin she won, 19 pledged delegates.

Her margin probably would drop further, however, because Obama would get at least some of the Edwards delegates. Edwards has endorsed Obama, and Ausman said nine of Edwards' 13 have already committed to support Obama.

Obama hasn't endorsed a plan.

Restoring half of the delegate-voting power would put the Democrats in line with the penalty the Republican Party imposed on Florida and other states that violated primary scheduling rules, cutting their votes in half. Presumed GOP nominee John McCain has said he would restore all the delegates.

Clinton has rejected the idea of a compromise.

In March, Clinton told The Washington Post, "I have no intention of stopping until we finish what we started ... and until we resolve Florida and Michigan. And if we don't resolve it, we'll resolve it at the convention - that's what credentials committees are for."

But on a visit to Florida on May 21, she said only that she would back the Florida and Michigan Democrats if they appealed to the credentials committee. Her campaign strategists are noncommittal on the question.

"We are hopeful and confident after having a full-blown discussion that all delegates will be seated and all will have a full vote," said Ickes, refusing to discuss what the campaign will do if they aren't.

Although Clinton wouldn't gain enough delegates to bring her close to Obama, a win today could help bolster her argument to the unpledged "superdelegates" - party leaders and elected officials - that she is the more electable candidate.

Clinton is expected to win Sunday's Puerto Rico primary and is arguing that even though Obama leads in delegates, she leads in popular votes of caucus-goers and primary voters.

The final two primaries are set for Tuesday in Montana and South Dakota.

In Florida, some Clinton supporters back her demand for a full delegation, including Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz of Weston, a Clinton national co-chairwoman.

But others, including Nelson, have said they would accept compromise. In fact, not even the Florida and Michigan party officials who filed the challenges to the ban expect all their delegates seated.

Regardless of the committee's actions, Obama backers and others say they think the race will be over after Tuesday's primaries in Montana and South Dakota.

"By this time next week, it will all be over, give or take a day," Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said Thursday.

Reporter Billy House can be reached at bhouse@tampatrib.com or (202) 662-7673. Reporter William March can be reached at wmarch@tampatrib.com or (813) 259-7761.

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