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Losses Could Upend GOP Leadership

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By BILLY HOUSE

bhouse@tampatrib.com

Published: November 2, 2008

Updated: 11/02/2008 12:12 am

TAMPA - Bay area Republicans and their GOP colleagues nationally will wake up the morning after Tuesday's elections with a newly chosen president-elect and a new political landscape.

A White House victory by John McCain would be a win for Florida Republicans, including Gov. Charlie Crist and U.S. Sen. Mel Martinez, who both face re-election in two years, analysts say.

A McCain loss - particularly if he doesn't carry Florida - could prove to be an embarrassment and a potential sign of trouble for the two Floridians, looking to 2010.

"If you are the party of the winner, it helps," said Susan MacManus, a University of South Florida political scientist.

More dire may be that the GOP will face a net loss of as many as 30 seats nationally in the House, including a net loss of two from Florida, even with a McCain victory.

Analysts also say Republicans are in line to lose eight or nine additional Senate seats from other states.

Rising Anger

Such a dismal showing in the congressional races could suddenly bring down to earth what has been the swift political ascendancy of U.S. Rep. Adam Putnam of Bartow as a top House Republican.

Even before the election results are in, expectations of a poor GOP showing and anger over the direction of the party has led to back-door maneuvering for a potential leadership fight targeting the unseating of Minority Leader John Boehner of Ohio and Whip Roy Blunt of Missouri.

Putnam also angered some rank-and-file House conservatives by supporting the Wall Street bailout package.

House GOP leadership elections, which will be held behind closed doors, are set for Nov. 17 in Washington.

However, there is some uncertainty over whether Putnam, who took his leadership role only two years ago and at age 34 is one of the House's youngest members, will be among those targeted in any leadership purge, said David Wasserman, an expert on the House with the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

"John Boehner and Roy Blunt have the most to fear," Wasserman said. "It's hard to say whether Adam Putnam will be seen by House Republicans as having to shoulder some of the blame of this debacle."

Putnam acknowledges there has been talk of a potential purge of current GOP House conference leaders after the election; the rank-and-file may turn to more conservative members, such as Virginia's Eric Cantor, to lead rebuilding efforts.

"Elections have consequences," said Putnam, on whether his position as conference chairman - the No. 3 House Republican - could be in jeopardy if the GOP conference is reduced after election losses to its most ideologically conservative members.

Backing Winner Can Pay

Crist's and Martinez's eleventh-hour endorsements of McCain during the GOP primary in Florida were pivotal in his getting the nomination.

In recent weeks, however, Crist, whose popularity among Floridians has remained high during his two-year tenure, has been accused of appearing more tepid on the campaign trail on behalf of McCain.

MacManus and Aubrey Jewett, a University of Central Florida political scientist, say Crist and Martinez stand to gain with a McCain victory.

After all, a president from the same political party can see to it that programs and funding are funneled to the state, give appointments to Cabinet-level jobs and make choices for other roles within his administration.

The president can also campaign and help raise money for Republicans, something Crist and Martinez may be doing in 2010.

But a McCain loss in Florida would be another sign that the Democratic Party is surging in the state, Jewett said.

Even if McCain loses Florida and the election, MacManus said, Crist's ability to maintain support of independents and what she calls his "carefully crafted centrist positions" will leave him in a better place than many other Republican governors.

About a week after the election, the Republican Governor's Association will convene its annual meeting in Miami.

It is one of several post-election GOP gatherings to concentrate on the direction of the party and on developing a new group of national party leaders for future elections. One of the sessions of the event is "The GOP in Transition."

The event will be hosted by Crist, giving him one of the highest profiles there.

Reporter Billy House can be reached at (202) 662-7673.

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