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Florida Still Neck And Neck

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By WILLIAM MARCH

wmarch@tampatrib.com

Published: November 2, 2008

TAMPA - As the nation heads into a historic election day, Barack Obama has edged ahead of John McCain among Florida voters, but by a margin that still leaves the race a tossup, according to a new poll.

The poll, done for The Tampa Tribune by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, shows Obama with 47 percent to McCain's 45 percent, with 7 percent undecided and 1 percent for other candidates.

With the poll's 4-point error margin, the result amounts to a tie or close to a tie, pollster Brad Coker said.

The result is an improvement for Obama from two weeks ago, when the same poll showed McCain ahead by a single percentage point, but Coker noted that both outcomes, and the change, are within the error margin.

"It's a bit of a gain; I'd rather be 2 points ahead than 2 points behind," Coker said. "But it's nothing to bet the house on, if you still have one."

The poll shows similarly close races in half a dozen other "battleground states": Obama leading by no more than the 4-point error margin in Nevada, Pennsylvania and Virginia, and McCain in Ohio, North Carolina and Missouri. In Colorado, Obama had a 5-point lead.

Coker said the polling in all those states showed large numbers of undecided white voters, however, leaving open the possibility of a last-minute shift of whites to McCain - the "Bradley effect," or reluctance of white voters to choose a black candidate, even if they are unwilling to say so to pollsters.

It refers to Tom Bradley, the longtime Los Angeles mayor who lost the 1982 California governor's race narrowly after leading in polls.

"This is not a prediction," Coker said, but "it would be foolish to rule out the possibility. ... If it happened, it would not be the first time in history."

All the states except Colorado had 5 percent to 9 percent undecided voters, the vast majority white. In Florida, 85 percent were white, with 96 percent in Missouri.

The Mason-Dixon polls, regarded by many experts as among the most reliable published political polls in Florida, have consistently shown a closer race than most others. They have shown a seesaw battle since the political conventions - Obama ahead, then McCain, now Obama - but always within the error margin.

Coker said that suggests either candidate can win Florida: "It's a turnout game."

But he said McCain's failure to nail down a state that sealed the 2000 and 2004 races for President Bush indicates a nationwide problem.

"The fact that McCain is fighting tooth and nail for Florida this late in the game, as he is fighting for half a dozen other states that went for Bush in 2004, is not a good sign," Coker said.

Reporter William March can be reached at (813) 259-7761.

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