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Paloma Likely To Become Category 2 Hurricane Friday

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By NEIL JOHNSON | The Tampa Tribune

Published: November 6, 2008

Updated: 11/06/2008 10:42 am

TAMPA - Tropical Storm Paloma, the season's 15th named storm, is forecast to be a Category 2 hurricane by the time it nears Cuba this weekend.

Paloma formed early this morning in the western Caribbean Sea from an area of low pressure that stalled off the coast of Central America.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami say Paloma should head toward the northeast on a track that would take it near the Cayman Islands and over Cuba on its way into the Atlantic Ocean.

The forecast calls for Paloma to reach hurricane strength Friday as it follows winds from the west circulating around an area of high pressure.

The storm is expected to reach its maximum strength of close to 100 mph Sunday. At that time, the hurricane center says Paloma should be approaching central or eastern Cuba, and it should reach the island Monday.

Most of the intensity models have Paloma weakening over Cuba and dropping to tropical storm strength as it crosses the Bahamas and runs into strong shear.

However, two of the more reliable intensity models bring Paloma close to a Category 3 storm in the Caribbean.

The storm is moving to the north-northwest at about 7 mph, a track that forecasters expect to continue through today with a more northerly turn on Friday. Its winds are about 40 mph.

Paloma is a fairly compact storm, with tropical storm winds extending about 25 mph from the center.

The track models are fairly well aligned on Paloma's path, and none of the spaghetti models bring the storm over Florida.

Water in the western Caribbean where Paloma formed is still warm enough to support tropical storms, and high level winds will remain benign over the next three days to allow the storm to quickly gain strength.

If Paloma becomes a hurricane, it would be the sixth of the season.

Reporter Neil Johnson can be reached at (813) 259-7731.

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