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Between The Blue And The Reddish, Did State Really Change?

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By WILLIAM MARCH

wmarch@tampatrib.com

Published: November 9, 2008

Updated: 11/09/2008 12:12 am

TAMPA - At least in presidential politics, Florida is purple again after looking reddish for the past decade - but that doesn't guarantee Florida Democrats any resurgence in state-level elections.

John McCain's loss, ironically, reopens the national political scene for Gov. Charlie Crist.

Many Crist supporters and allies were angry when he wasn't chosen as McCain's running mate. With McCain off the stage, they think Crist can be among the contenders for national leadership of the party.

That's some of the political fallout from Tuesday's election, in which Obama became the first Democrat to win the state's 27 electoral votes since 1996.

His Florida win, proving a Democrat can win here statewide, may embolden Democrats to challenge Republicans in such contests as the coming 2010 governor and U.S. Senate races.

Alex Sink of Tampa, the state's chief financial officer, could be among them. She is considered a leading future electoral prospect for the Democrats.

But Obama's victory doesn't mean the Florida Democratic Party has suddenly acquired the muscle and organizational skill of its rival. "This was an Obama victory created out of whole cloth by the Obama campaign," said Alan Katz of Tallahassee, one of Obama's earliest Florida supporters. The state party, Katz said, must be revamped before it can duplicate such an effort.

GOP Remains Unfazed

Republicans contend the Obama win shows no underlying change in the political leaning of the state, which they say is Republican.

In a recent memo on Republican talking points sent to party activists, party spokeswoman Erin VanSickle said the overall election results "bode very well for the future in Florida," noting that the Obama campaign outspent McCain heavily.

"If you look at Congressional races, State House and Senate, and Constitutional Amendments, Florida Republicans had a good night" on Tuesday, she said. "The 2008 election results are simply not indicative of a huge change in the electorate in Florida."

Still, the Obama campaign will leave behind benefits for state Democrats.

"A lot of volunteers got brought into the process by the president-elect, but once people start getting involved, a lot of them tend to stay involved," said state party spokesman Eric Jotkoff. "We know the people who were involved, and we can go to them again in the future."

Research indicates that many of the thousands of new voters Obama recruited are likely to remain loyal Democrats, said University of South Florida political scientist Susan MacManus.

"You're excited as a first-time voter, especially if you volunteer, and if your candidate wins you're even more excited," she said. "That locks you in to that party for most of your life, if not all your life."

Obama's win, however, won't give Democrats much help in building the middle tier of politics - the state legislative and congressional offices - that prepares officeholders for the bigger races.

"On a statewide level Florida is winnable" for a Democrat, said Dan Gelber of Miami Beach, a former state representative elected Tuesday to the state Senate.

But Gelber, who is also considered a potential statewide candidate, pointed out that few legislative or congressional seats changed hands Tuesday despite the Obama win, and said that is partly because the districts for those seats were drawn to protect the electoral prospects of the incumbents - mostly Republicans.

"It's going to be hard to push the current totals much further without a redistricting change," he said. That can't come until after the 2010 census, and a district plan would have to be voted on by the Legislature, still GOP-dominated. "We need a Democratic governor who can veto reapportionment plans, or we're out of luck until 2020," the next census and redistricting, Gelber said.

Democrats point out that the current districting plan has produced large Republican majorities in the state House, state Senate and congressional delegation, even though Tuesday's result and the last two presidential elections all showed a relatively evenly divided state.

Sink said in a recent Tribune interview that she will look at the possibility of a U.S. Senate run, particularly if Republican Sen. Mel Martinez decides not to run for re-election in 2010.

Sink has said in the past that she'd rather run for governor but doesn't want to run against a popular incumbent like Crist.

Races For Money Don't Wait

Martinez has not said yet whether he will run for re-election, but he has filed a statement of candidacy and is raising money. He has raised about $1.7 million in this two-year election cycle and had about $1.2 million in his campaign fund as of Sept. 30.

Sink will have to decide soon if she is to raise the money and mount a competitive campaign.

"It's very encouraging - it shows a good candidate with a good campaign and organization can win statewide," she said, when asked if Obama's win will affect her decision.

Crist is certain to run for re-election.

He is also being mentioned repeatedly in the national press and by GOP insiders as among the rising new faces in the party. Two reasons for this: He was on McCain's short list of running mate choices, giving him national media exposure, and he is governor of the nation's fourth-largest state, one that's a must-win state for a GOP presidential candidate.

Obama's win in Florida makes it more likely that Democrats will put up a credible candidate to run against Crist, MacManus said.

Crist's job approval ratings remain high, seemingly insulating him from the anti-Republican political climate. However, MacManus said, "He disappointed a lot of Republicans by not being more active in the McCain campaign."

Reporter William March can be reached at (813) 259-7761.

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