TBO.com - TBO is Tampa Bay Online

Poll: Crist's Popularity Enduring Election

ADVERTISEMENT

By BILLY HOUSE

bhouse@tampatrib.com

Published: November 19, 2008

Amid state budget woes, a declining housing market, concerns about property taxes and insurance, and the worst jobless rate Florida has seen since 1994, Gov. Charlie Crist remains highly popular.

Republican governors from other states hit hard by the economy - such as California's Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and Nevada's Jim Gibbons - are seeing their job-approval ratings plummet.

But Crist bucks that trend.

The latest evidence: a nonpartisan poll released Tuesday by the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute showing that the first-term governor enjoys an approval rating at 68 percent - and would be tough for a Democrat to beat if he runs again in 2010. Only 18 percent disapprove of the way Crist is handling his job.

In fact, half of the voters surveyed - including 82 percent of Republicans and one out of every five Democrats - said they would vote to re-elect Crist, while only 28 percent said they would prefer to back a Democrat.

"I couldn't be more humbled by those numbers. I just think people understand that we're trying - we're trying very hard," said Crist, who has not yet formally announced he is running for a second term.

"I think it has been a model of working together with Republicans, Democrats, and independents. That really has been a key to success," Crist added.

In California, one recent poll showed Schwarzenegger's job-performance rating has slipped to 52 percent disapproving, with just 38 approving. Schwarzenegger is term-limited from running again in 2010.

In Nevada, another state hit hard by a budget crunch and difficult housing market, a recent poll showed Gibbons has a 27 percent approval rating.

But Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac institute said, "Florida votes Democrat for president, unseats a couple of Republican congressmen, and the state GOP is worrying about the state turning blue, but nothing seems to hurt Governor Crist."

For sure, there have been some hiccups.

As recently as April, Crist's approval rating in a Quinnipiac poll slipped to its lowest level - 59 percent - amid suggestions that he was paying too much attention to national politics and his out-of-state travel was grating on Floridians.

Another issue that may have hurt was Crist's switch from his stiff opposition to offshore oil drilling after Republican presidential candidate John McCain's proposal to lift the federal ban and leave the decision to the states.

But those numbers have clearly rebounded, even against the backdrop of bad economic times and with the Republican Party seemingly on the ropes.

"It's pretty remarkable, given that Republicans just took a thumping," said Aubrey Jewitt, a University of Central Florida political scientist. "Particularly here in Florida, where their economy is doing worse than the national economy and usually governors are held responsible," he said.

Quinnipiac's telephone survey of 1,361 Florida voters Nov. 11-16 had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points.

Aubrey said Crist's popularity formula is one that includes the solid support also enjoyed by his predecessor, Republican Jeb Bush, among Republicans. But he said Crist also is able to combine that with better-than-Jeb Bush popularity among Democrats, as well as among independents.

"He's relentless, very energetic, and he's cultivated a base that's much broader than our previous governor - and Bush went out on top," Jewitt said. "If I had to tie Crist's popularity to any one thing, it's that he's been successful in expanding his own personal base of support beyond the traditional Republican Party."

Quinnipiac's poll numbers Tuesday bear that out. They show 78 percent of the Republicans surveyed approve of Crist's job performance, but so do 60 percent of Democrats and 66 percent of independents.

"He promised to bring a more bipartisan tone at the state Capitol. And by many accounts, he has - there's a much different atmosphere there," said Jewitt. He said Crist also has made good on that promise, even to the point of pressing issues not necessarily popular within his own party.

Those include his push to allow felons to vote, extending the hours of early voting, and changing the system of voting to one that leaves a paper trail.

But there's something else that is working for Crist, even amid the real concerns statewide about housing, insurance, taxes, the state budget and an unemployment rate of 6.6 percent. That's the worst the state has seen since October 1994, and higher than the national unemployment rate of 6.1 percent.

"People may not pay attention to every detail of these problems in the press. But they do see that Crist's personality is very optimistic and positive," Jewitt said. "Even in down times, we generally like someone optimistic."

If Crist's numbers continue to hold, Democrats considering challenging Crist in 2010 would be facing an uphill battle. Or some might simply choose to wait another four years for Crist to be term-limited out of the governor's office.

Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, who Quinnipiac found has a 35 percent job-approval rating, scores best among the Democratic officials mentioned as possible 2010 Crist opponents and whom respondents were asked to rate favorably or unfavorably.

The poll found that 27 percent of those who were surveyed viewed her favorably, while 13 percent viewed her unfavorably and 59 percent of the voters say they don't know enough about her to form an opinion.

Still those numbers are better than other potential rivals such as U.S. Rep. Allen Boyd of Monticello, with an 11-5 percent favorable-unfavorable score, Rep. Kendrick Meek of Miami, with a 14-8 percent favorable-unfavorable split, and State Sen.-elect Dan Gelber, with an 8-3 percent favorable-unfavorable score.

While Crist enjoys a high job-approval rating, the Quinnipiac polls showed GOP Sen. Mel Martinez's approval mark is at 42 percent - leaving him far more vulnerable than Crist if he runs for re-election to his Senate seat in two years.

Even so, the poll showed Martinez's approval numbers have moved up from a Quinnipiac low of 35 percent in October 2007.

Sink told the Tribune recently that she will look at the possibility of a U.S. Senate run, particularly if Martinez decides not to run for re-election in 2010. She has said in the past that she would rather run for governor but doesn't want to run against a popular incumbent like Crist.

But there is some optimism among Democrats.

"Floridians may constantly see him and his smiling face on TV," said Eric Jotkoff, state Democratic Party spokesman. But he said that as Florida continues to lose jobs and see record home foreclosures, "they will see that he is not doing his job and not providing the leadership Florida needs."

Reporter Billy House can be reached at (202) 662-7673.

Share this:

Loading Comments...

Email Print

ADVERTISEMENT