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Experts Wade Into Budget Ink And Find State Deeper In Red

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By CATHERINE DOLINSKI | The Tampa Tribune

Published: November 21, 2008

TALLAHASSEE - Florida's revenue could plummet $1.5 billion lower than predicted a few months ago -- to $3.3 billion -- a conference of state economists suggested this morning.

Top analysts for the Legislature and Gov. Charlie Crist are meeting at the Capitol this morning to hash out a prediction for the state's flagging tax collections and other shrinking sources of revenue. Early indications show that revenue could be more than $1.5 billion lower this fiscal year than analysts predicted at their last meeting.

The state budget stands at $66 billion, down from the $72 billion budget that lawmakers passed in spring 2007.

The state's growing income gap jeopardizes every facet of government spending, from roads to public schools.

In August they were predicting a shortfall of $1.8 billion for this year. Those findings triggered emergency action by the governor, who withdrew $675 million from state reserves to make sure the state stays in the black.

On top of the potential $3.3 billion shortfall for this year, the analysts are lowering estimates for fiscal year 2009-10. In August they lowered their revenue estimate for next year by $2.2 billion; today it appears that might drop again by as much as $2.7 billion – to $4.9 billion.

Based on the August projections of this year's shortfall, Democrats began calling for a special session to decide where to cut the state budget.

Crist and GOP legislative leaders have been noncommittal and have appeared more inclined to make across-the-board spending reductions without reconvening.

Whatever path they choose to take to handle this year's shortfall, budgeting for next year promises to be brutal business for lawmakers. Any reductions targeted in the spring will come on top of the $6 billion that lawmakers have sliced the past fiscal year from health care, education, criminal justice and other vital areas.

All of today's revenue projections remain tentative because analysts have numerous discrepancies to reconcile today, particularly in the areas of sales and corporate income tax.

A final report is expected today.

Reporter Catherine Dolinski can be reached at (850) 222-8382 or cdolinski@tampatrib.com.

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