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Tropical Disturbance In Caribbean Could Become Storm

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By NEIL JOHNSON | The Tampa Tribune

Published: November 24, 2008

TAMPA - Providing further evidence that there is a reason hurricane season doesn't end until Nov. 30, forecasters are watching a tropical disturbance in the Caribbean Sea they say shows potential for development.

The area of storms is tucked into the southwest area of the Caribbean, north of Panama. It is in about the only area in the tropics with water temperatures high enough to support tropical system development.

The National Hurricane Center has watched the mass of thunderstorms for a few days. Forecasters say it could become a tropical depression in a day or two if it remains over water.

It has become better organized, forecasters said. The hurricane center gives the disturbance a 20 to 50 percent chance of developing into at least a tropical depression.

Forecast models mostly keep it around Central America, and some have it even crossing into the Pacific Ocean. It is now drifting slowly west.

Some of the intensity models bring the disturbance to a tropical storm, but other models keep it below that level.

The disturbance is in the same general area of the Caribbean that spawned the late season Hurricane Paloma, Tropical Depression 16 and Tropical Storm Marco.

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