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Election Is Key To Fate Of Roe

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Los Angeles Times

Published: October 6, 2008

WASHINGTON - Every four years, defenders of abortion rights proclaim that the fate of Roe v. Wade hangs on the outcome of the presidential election.

This year, they might be right.

Through most of 1990s and until recently, the Supreme Court had a solid 6-3 majority in favor of upholding the right of a woman to choose abortion.

But the margin has shrunk to one, now that Justice Sandra Day O'Connor has retired and been replaced by Justice Samuel Alito.

And Justice John Paul Stevens, a leader of the narrow majority for abortion rights, is 88 years old.

"Clearly, Roe is on the line this time," says Indiana University law Professor Dawn Johnsen, once a lawyer for NARAL Pro-Choice America.

"It is quite clear they have four votes against it. If the next president appoints one more, the odds are it will be overruled," Johnsen said.

But that doesn't mean abortion or the fate of the Roe decision is a rallying cry on the campaign trail for Democrats or Republicans. The two parties have opposite positions, but their candidates rarely mention them when campaigning.

The abortion issue is enormously important to the base of both parties, political strategists say. But it is a touchy and difficult matter to raise with an audience of swing voters and those who are undecided.

"People are conflicted about it," said Peter Fenn, a veteran Democratic strategist. "If you are campaigning in Scranton Pa., you want to make the lunch-bucket argument. When the economy is driving the race, you don't want to ignite the culture wars."

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