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Afghan Report Warns Of 'Downward Spiral'

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The Associated Press

Published: October 10, 2008

WASHINGTON - The situation in Afghanistan is the worst it has been since the U.S.-led invasion of 2001 and the country is in danger of a "downward spiral" into violence and chaos, according to an intelligence report draft.

The nearly completed National Intelligence Estimate, the work of 16 intelligence agencies, says Afghanistan's deterioration has accelerated alarmingly in the past two months. Bush administration officials say privately that Afghanistan is now the single most pressing security threat in the fight against terrorism.

"We are doing a review to look to see what more we can do," Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Thursday. "We are looking to see where some of the strengths are and how we can support those strengths and also how we can help the Afghans when there are weaknesses."

A senior U.S. commander with recent experience in Afghanistan characterized the situation as "stagnant" rather than deteriorating.

"We're not making progress. And we're not making progress because of a lack of capability in the government and because the Taliban have a safe haven from which to plan, train and launch attacks into Afghanistan," said the commander, who, like others, spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitive material.

A second military commander, who read the draft of the intelligence report, said it warns that action is needed quickly to prevent Afghanistan from heading into the "downward spiral." The secret report is expected to be completed in mid-November, and some conclusions could change.
Military figures show that Afghanistan has become far more dangerous for American troops than Iraq.

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