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Stone's Film On Bush Won't Ripple To Polls, Experts Say

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By BILLY HOUSE

The Tampa Tribune

Published: October 16, 2008

WASHINGTON - Will Oliver Stone's new movie about the current Republican president have any impact on the race between two men who want to be the next president?

Stone's film biography of George W. Bush arrives in theaters Friday, just as the presidential contest between Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama is about enter into its final two weeks.

"W." depicts Bush, portrayed by Josh Brolin, as a man unfit to lead, or as a president sometimes in over his head.

Nonpartisan political analysts say the movie's timing certainly won't help McCain, who has been trying to distance himself from the president, but likely won't boost Obama much, either.

"Bush is clearly unpopular, and he's unpopular with undecided voters, so anything that raises his image in people's minds in the campaign's last two weeks doesn't fit the script McCain is looking for," said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion.

Rutgers University political scientist Ross Baker said: "It's sort of a reminder of the shortcomings of the administration, and the Republican brand name is already so tarnished."

Miringoff and Baker agreed with University of Florida political science professor Stephen Craig by predicting that although the movie may create some buzz, it likely won't have much of an impact on Election Day polling.

"People who think the movie's great are going to be voting Democratic, anyhow," Craig said. "And people who are going to be offended by it aren't going to be voting Democratic."

The movie's release comes as Bush's job approval rating has plummeted to 23 percent, one point away from the record low for a president, registered by President Truman in 1952.

"In a sense, Bush has become almost irrelevant - he obviously is not irrelevant - but the impact that Bush has on this election has been done; it's already been felt," Craig said.

Reporter Billy House can be reached at (202) 662-7673.

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