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McCain's Focus On Vulnerable 'Red States'

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The Washington Post

Published: October 17, 2008

NEW YORK - Republican John McCain may have stayed on the offensive during his final debate with Democrat Barack Obama, but for the last 19 days of the presidential campaign he will be playing nothing but defense.

The global financial crisis, coupled with Obama's steady performance through the three presidential debates, have left McCain with an extremely difficult path to the White House. Absent his ability to pick off any state won by the Democrats four years ago, he must prevent Obama from winning any of half a dozen Republican states that now appear vulnerable.
Republican strategists see trouble almost everywhere, as they face the prospect of not only losing the White House but seeing Democratic majorities in the House and Senate grow as well. That could force a competition for resources during the final weeks, but strategists said a McCain comeback would be most helpful in relieving some of the pressure on other GOP candidates.

"The Republican brand's in trouble for all these guys," said Alex Castellanos, a party strategist. "It seems like an eternity ago, but it was only a few weeks, that the Republican brand was defined as populist, outsiders, McCain-Palin who are going to change Washington. Now we're back to a Republican brand that is George Bush, economy, and Wall Street and Washington insiders. That's hurt everybody."

The Republican National Committee's independent-expenditure ad unit, which is not legally permitted to coordinate with McCain, will spend $18 million over 18 days in just eight states: Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Indiana, Missouri and Colorado. All but Pennsylvania voted Republican in 2004.

Without a shift of voters back toward McCain, Republican candidates and party leaders may be forced in the next two weeks to confront the question of whether they should move more money to targeted congressional races to hold down anticipated losses in the House or Senate, or continue to try to hold the line for McCain in the battleground states.

The political climate has worsened, the electoral battlegrounds have shifted away from him over the past two weeks, and Obama enjoys a significant advantage in money to spend on television ads and voter mobilization.

At this point, strategists in both camps have virtually conceded Iowa and New Mexico, two states won narrowly by Bush in 2004, to Obama. McCain's campaign and the RNC still point to Pennsylvania and, to a lesser extent, New Hampshire, as potential pickups. But McCain has so many red states to defend that he may not have either the time or the money to convert Democratic turf.

Obama campaign manager David Plouffe said that, in addition to Iowa and New Mexico, he feels increasingly good about Virginia and Colorado. If Obama holds all the states Democrats won in 2004 and adds Iowa and New Mexico to his column, then he will need only one of those two to win the election. "The fact that both Virginia and Colorado have strengthened for us strategically could not be more important," he said.

McCain senior adviser Steve Schmidt did not try to play down the obstacles his candidate faces but said he thinks the senator from Arizona remains in the fight. Schmidt said his reading of the election is that McCain is now running behind Obama by four to six points nationally.

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