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Economy Expected To Rally, Poll Finds

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By ALAN FRAM

The Associated Press

Published: October 24, 2008

WASHINGTON - People are skittish about the economy's immediate future. Ask how things will be in a year and you hear a different story - and a remarkable show of optimism despite economists' widespread expectations that a serious recession is brewing.

Most expect the economy to generally be better and the stock market to be rising three months from now, according to an Associated Press-GfK poll released Thursday. However, that's mixed with gloom: Majorities also doubt unemployment will fall or home values will rise by then, and people are split over whether their personal finances will improve.

Extend the timeline to a year and the public's mood about the economy grows cheerier. Most say they expect more jobs and higher real estate values. They also think their own financial situations will be better a year from now, the survey shows.

That optimism seems to run counter to the beliefs of many economists that the United States is in, or about to enter, a recession. Many said the presidential election will affect the economy's performance. Forty-four percent said they think the economy will improve if Democrat Barack Obama is elected, but 34 percent said it would get better if Republican John McCain wins.

In instances of growing public optimism, the poll found:

•Although 53 percent said the economy would be better in three months, 75 percent said it would improve in a year.

•People are divided evenly over whether their personal finances would improve in three months, but two-thirds expect things to be better in a year.

•Although 58 percent see a higher stock market in three months, 77 percent predict a stronger market in a year.

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