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Is Victory At Stake In State?

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By WILLIAM MARCH

wmarch@tampatrib.com

Published: October 26, 2008

Updated: 10/26/2008 01:11 am

TAMPA - It's happening again. We knew it would.

As the presidential race narrows to a handful of states where the two candidates are clawing to get over the top, Florida would be each man's top prize. And the Tampa Bay area is their key to Florida.

As in 2000 and 2004, the race here has exploded in a welter of television ads, "robocalls," visiting celebrities and mega-rallies.

The result, according to experts, political insiders and a rash of conflicting polls, is a race in Florida that's simply too close to call. Either candidate could win.

But for John McCain and Barack Obama, a win would have drastically different meanings.

Obama can win the presidency in Florida, but he can't lose it here.

McCain can lose the presidency in Florida, but he can't win it here.

That's because for McCain, Florida is a must-win. The arithmetic of the Electoral College and the states where the two are competing mean McCain can't reach a majority without Florida's 27 electoral votes.

"If Obama wins Florida, we'll all go to bed early on election night," said veteran political scientist Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia.

But even if McCain scores a victory in Florida, as his supporters say they are confident he will, he must win other contested battleground states to become president.

Unfortunately for McCain, those are all states that President Bush won in 2004, but where Obama is now leading, tied or close. "All the battlegrounds are red," Sabato said.

Besides the largest battleground, Florida, he listed Ohio, Virginia and Colorado, all with Obama leads, and North Carolina, Indiana, Nevada, Montana and North Dakota, where polls generally show tossups.

That means Obama is on offense, threatening to take back Republican-leaning states. McCain is on defense in a war being fought on what should be his turf.

"Obama doesn't need Florida - he's got so many advantages now," Sabato said. "A chance of carrying both Montana and North Dakota, both strong red states, and a tie in Indiana, where Bush won by 27 points in '04."

Nonetheless, Obama has been drastically outspending McCain in Florida on television advertising, and equaling or exceeding him in personal appearances.

Obama; his wife, Michelle; Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton; and New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson barnstormed Florida for the first three days of last week to urge early voting.

McCain answered with two stops in Florida on Thursday, plus tours by daughter Meghan McCain and Sen. Joe Lieberman.

More Freedom For Obama

With a significant Electoral College lead, Obama has the luxury of campaigning where he wants, but McCain must keep one foot planted in Florida and pivot to other states.

McCain has been promising local supporters he would bring his Florida TV spending up to parity. Brian Ballard, his state co-chairman, expected near-equality by last week.

But for the seven days ending Tuesday, Obama spent $4.3 million to McCain's $1.1 million plus another $400,000 spent on McCain's behalf by the national Republican Party, said Evan Tracey of the Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks political spending.

The Nielsen Co., which tracks numbers of political spots, showed a 3-to-1 advantage for Obama through Wednesday.

Obama will appear at a rally with Bill Clinton in Orlando on Wednesday. Sarah Palin will be in Tampa and Kissimmee today, and Joe Biden is to appear in New Port Richey on Monday, following the visit of his wife, Jill, to Tampa on Saturday. McCain's wife, Cindy, and Rudy Giuliani will be in West Palm Beach today.

McCain Was To Win Easily

McCain, many experts say, should not be in danger of losing Florida.

After Obama and other Democratic candidates boycotted the state's Jan. 29 primary and Obama didn't set up a campaign organization until summer, many insiders expected a relatively easy McCain win.

McCain also had the support of Gov. Charlie Crist, whose endorsement helped him win the Florida primary. Crist promised to deliver the state for McCain.

The governor may still keep that promise. But since McCain picked Palin as his running mate, disappointing Crist, there have been questions on whether Crist has been campaigning wholeheartedly for McCain. The governor contends he has.

No one denies there has been tension and disagreement between the state party and the McCain campaign about who should run the show.

There's also disagreement among recent polls.

Some show McCain coming back from a deficit early in the month to lead by a percentage point or two, statistical ties. But a few have shown Obama with leads of 5 to 7 percentage points.

"Some of these pollsters are going to look smart and some stupid on Election Day," Sabato said.

Even some veteran Florida political operatives are mystified.

"Bizarre numbers," said longtime GOP strategist Cory Tilley. "You just have to come to one conclusion: It's close - probably close to the margin of error."

Ballard said private polls he has seen convince him McCain is slightly ahead.

New Registrants Throw Polls

Democratic pollster Jim Kitchens offered an explanation for the mixed results: Pollsters don't know how to account for the large numbers of new voters, mostly young people and minorities, that Obama's campaign has registered.

Pollsters "weight" their samples, counting some responses more, to make up for underrepresented demographic groups. Some pollsters may be weighting young and minority respondents to take account of the new registrants.

But will those traditionally low-turnout minorities and young people show up to vote, proving the polls accurate?

"Ain't that the question?" Kitchens said. "I think it's close, but Obama has a bit of an edge."

Tilley said the election "will come down to who has the best organization, who can motivate their base, turn out their voters and sway those undecideds.

"The good news on the Republican side is we've proven we do that pretty well," he said.

But Tallahassee City Council member Allan Katz, an early Obama supporter, said the Obama campaign has changed the dynamics of Florida politics with its thousands of new registrants and by putting together the kind of turnout organization Florida Republicans have long had but Democrats never did.

"We have a very good chance of carrying Florida," he said.

Judging by where he's putting his money and his time, one person who believes him is Barack Obama.

Reporter William March can be reached at (813) 259-7761.

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