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Bush's Absence At Convention Unlikely To Hurt McCain

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By WILLIAM MARCH and BILLY HOUSE

The Tampa Tribune

Published: September 2, 2008

ST. PAUL, Minn. - It may be the result of misfortune for many - a hurricane - but the absence of President Bush from his party's convention here this week probably isn't a misfortune for John McCain.

Political experts say that Bush's non-appearance will lessen the association between the Arizona senator and a president with declining popularity. It will help fight what has been Democratic Sen. Barack Obama's main attack on him: that his presidency would only amount to four more years of the Bush administration.

Bush's absence also leaves the field open for McCain to demonstrate concern for the potential victims of Hurricane Gustav, and to show himself exercising leadership in the situation - even acting almost as a surrogate president.

On Sunday, McCain and his vice presidential choice, Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, were in Jackson, Miss., to tour the state's Emergency Management Agency Emergency Operation Center and receive a briefing on storm preparations.

McCain delivered an assessment: "The coordination and work that is being done at all levels appears to be excellent."

McCain and Palin were invited to Mississippi by Republican Gov. Haley Barbour. Obama said he did not want to strain emergency services by visiting the region.

McCain's campaign spokesmen and Republican Party activists here for the convention would not acknowledge any positive effect of Bush's absence, at least on the record.

McCain spokesmen, asked whether Bush's absence helped or hurt McCain, didn't directly address the question.

"It's appropriate at the time of potential national disaster that the president is focused on emergency response," said Jeff Sadosky, the campaign's regional communications director. "This election is about two candidates and their views, vision and judgment."
Florida Republican Party Chairman Jim Greer added, "There's no positive or negative political aspect to the changes in the convention lineup. The political aspects just don't exist; at the end of the day there's no winners and losers."

But some campaign insiders acknowledged off the record they were not unhappy that a tribute to the outgoing president, planned to dominate Monday's first night of the convention, did not happen.

University of South Florida political scientist Darryl Paulson, a Republican who backs McCain, called it "great news."

"The bad news is that some of the rising stars like Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal won't be at the convention, but the good news is that some of the falling stars like George Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney won't be there.

"It allows McCain as much as possible to separate himself from the Bush administration," Paulson said.

Paulson said he thought, without having had a chance to research the question, the last time a president failed to appear at his party's national convention was in 1968. That year, at the height of the unpopular Vietnam War, Lyndon B. Johnson announced he wouldn't run for re-election and didn't attend the Democratic Party's turmoil-stricken convention in Chicago.

Though Bush is absent, his wife, whose popularity with the public has not declined, is still involved.

Laura Bush and McCain's wife, Cindy, attended the Louisiana delegation's breakfast Monday and spoke together at the convention Monday night.

Some Florida delegates said Monday they did not see Bush's and Cheney's non-participation as a good break.

"In any family and party you have people who don't do everything right all the time," said Mildred Fernandez, an Orange County commissioner. "But you don't reject them as part of the family."

Aubrey Jewett, a University of Central Florida political scientist who maintains political neutrality, said there is an upside and a downside for McCain on Bush's absence. "Among the Republican base, the president still has at least decent support," he said. "He could still rally the base, just by picking on the Democrats."

But the purpose of a convention, Jewett said, "is to influence people watching, through media coverage. Bush is so unpopular among the general public that the fact that he's not there will probably help the Republicans."

Jewett said that McCain cannot say so for fear of offending that base. But he added, "Deep in his heart of hearts, McCain's probably not too upset about it."

Reporter William March can be reached at (813) 259-7761 or wmarch@tampatrib.com. Reporter Billy House can be reached at (202) 662 7673 or bhouse@tampatrib.com.

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