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Hurricane Ike, The Season's 5th, Bears Down On Bahamas

By NEIL JOHNSON | The Tampa Tribune

Published: September 3, 2008

Updated: 09/03/2008 06:27 pm

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TAMPA - Florida is trading one threat for another.

Tropical Storm Hanna looks like it will pass to the east, but Hurricane Ike could be curving near Florida's southeast coast by early next week.

Ike's winds reached 80 mph this afternoon, making it the season's fifth hurricane as it moved west-northwest toward the southern Bahamas at 18 mph. Ike is now a major Category 3 hurricane with winds near 115 mph.

This afternoon's advisory from the National Hurricane Center put the southeast tip of Florida in the cone of possible strike areas by Monday afternoon. The National Hurricane Center said Ike could still have winds of 115 mph by then.

The latest track is a shift from Ike's forecast path of the past few days, showing a slight bend toward the northwest Sunday. Earlier forecasts had Ike keeping a more westerly path, pinned on the south side of the clockwise rotating winds of a high-pressure area that dominates the central Atlantic Ocean.

The shift comes from forecast models showing a trough of low pressure possibly moving south early next week. The trough could weaken or erode the high-pressure area and free Ike to take a slightly more northern tack.

Forecasters said they cannot tell whether the shift in the expected track is a sign Ike will curve into the Atlantic or if the high pressure will remain potent enough to keep Ike heading toward land.

It's far too early to tell whether Ike will turn enough to avoid Florida.

"It will be approaching the Bahamas by Sunday," said Ben Nelson, state meteorologist.

Any turn Ike makes will depend on when the trough arrives and how much the front weakens.

"The question is, 'When does the ridge erode in front of Ike?' " Nelson said. "It's pure speculation on when or where the storm will go after Monday."

Ike's growing threat to Florida replaces that of Hanna.

Tropical Storm Hanna stopped wandering around Haiti and the southern Bahamas and began the move north that will take the storm toward the Georgia or South Carolina coast Friday night or early Saturday morning.

Forecasters said Hanna could reach hurricane strength -- with winds of about 80 mph -- before landfall.

It is not likely that winds on the weaker western side of Hanna will stretch enough to reach the Tampa Bay area, Nelson said. It is possible that tropical storm winds could brush the state's east coast.

Winds of tropical storm strength or greater, however, probably will reach more than 200 miles to the east of Hanna as it passes the state.

Hanna should be far enough away to keep rainfall over the northeast part of the state to an inch or two. That would be good news for the parts of the St. Johns River that are still above flood stage from Tropical Storm Fay.

As for Tropical Storm Josephine, forecasts have the storm weakening to a tropical depression by the weekend. Its track after that is highly uncertain, the hurricane center said.