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A Category 3 Ike Could Loom Off Florida By Tuesday

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By NEIL JOHNSON | The Tampa Tribune

Published: September 4, 2008

Updated: 09/04/2008 06:20 pm

TAMPA - Hurricane Ike could yo-yo in strength the next few days but arrive as a Category 3 storm not far from the Florida shore by Tuesday afternoon.

Riding the southern edge of an area of high pressure, Ike could roll over the Bahamas on Sunday as it slowly begins a slight turn to the west-northwest with winds of about 125 mph, forecasters say.

Nearly the entire Florida peninsula, including the Tampa Bay area, is within the cone of possible strike zones for Ike.

Ike, this year's fifth hurricane, comes during a season that has yet to reach its peak.

Whether Ike hits Florida depends on the race between the storm's southwest movement and an approaching low-pressure area that would curve Ike to the north, said Amy Godsey, Florida's deputy state meteorologist.

If Ike travels too far south and west before the low pressure arrives, Florida could be in its path as it curves north, she said.

Forecast models are widely split on the timing of the low pressure's arrival. It is being pushed east by high pressure over the Great Plains.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center say Ike will weaken a bit from its current 130 mph winds, dropping to about 105 mph as shear saps the storm, but regain strength after the weekend.

There have been 10 named storms this year, and the season is six days from its peak. That peak day, according to statistics compiled by the National Hurricane Center in Miami, is Sept. 10.

From 1944 through 2005, there were more tropical storms or hurricanes swirling in the tropics on Sept. 10 than on any other date in the six months of hurricane season.

The high number of storms dovetails with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's outlook for the 2008 season. The agency issued that in May and updated it in Aug. 7.

The prediction calls for 14 to 18 named storms, with seven to 10 becoming hurricanes. Of those, NOAA says, three to six will be major hurricanes of Category 3 or greater.

"This is what we predicted back in May, and it's happening," said Gerry Bell, the Climate Prediction Center's lead seasonal predictor for the NOAA forecast.

There are many factors working to create a fast-paced season.

One factor is less shear: winds high in the atmosphere that can stunt or destroy developing storms.

Areas of low pressure moving off the East Coast that can generate storm-stifling shear have stayed farther north this year, Godsey said. That has reduced shear in the tropics.

"There hasn't been a lot of shear, at least where it needs to be," she said.

There also have been less dry air and dust blown off the African Sahara hovering in the atmosphere.

"There's not a whole lot of dust or dry air coming out of Africa," Godsey said.

Dry air pulled into a storm's circulation can be death to hurricanes. And though scientists are still studying the exact effect of the Saharan dust, they think unusually high amounts of the dust over the Atlantic in 2006 helped keep that season relatively quiet, with 10 named storms.

Another large part of the season's activity is a jet stream blowing off Africa about 10,000 feet above the ocean, Bell said.

The river of air adds energy to tropical waves coming off Africa, allowing the collections of thunderstorms to sweep in more moisture, grow larger and add spin that helps create the circulation that forms tropical storms.

"Ultimately it's a collection of conditions," Bell said.

Already, five named storms have hit the United States. Tropical Storm Hanna is expected to be the sixth, and Ike could be the seventh.

"The patterns are really steering these systems toward the United States. People need to be prepared," Bell said.

The most active weeks of the hurricane season usually run from the middle of August through the middle of October, with September forming the tip of the peak. The number of storms that form usually drops by the end of October until the season's end on Nov. 30.

But during such an active season, the peak can last longer.

"With this much activity, you can see storms developing in late October and into November," Bell said.

It's A Storm Season In A Hurry

In a normal year: 10 named storms by Nov. 5.
This year: 10 named storms by Sept. 2.

In a normal year: Fifth hurricane by Oct. 10.
This year: Fifth hurricane by Sept. 3.

In a normal year: Two Category 3 or higher storms by Nov. 30.
This year: Three Category 3 or higher storms by Sept. 4.

Source: National Hurricane Center

Reporter Neil Johnson can be reached at (813) 259-7731 or njohnson@tampatrib.com.

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TOPICS IN THIS ARTICLE

national hurricane center • national oceanic and atmospheric administration • florida peninsula • tropical storms • forecast models • florida shore • hurricane season • west northwest • tampa bay area • deputy state • godsey • southern edge • forecasters • category 3 • noaa • meteorologist • great plains • tuesday afternoon • hurricanes • six days

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