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Worry Over Iraq Vote Influences Troop Levels

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The Associated Press

Published: September 6, 2008

BAGHDAD - Concern over upcoming elections and widening tensions among Iraq's religious and ethnic groups appear to be the reasons for the U.S. military's recommendation to put the brakes on withdrawing more American troops from Iraq despite improvements in security.

President Bush's top defense advisers have urged that he keep 15 combat brigades in Iraq until the end of the year - despite expectations that better security would allow for faster cuts, The Associated Press has learned.

The White House said Friday that Bush will announce his decision on future troop levels in Iraq next week.

The recommendation seems at odds with recent glowing reports from many fronts: al-Qaida in Iraq is on the run, the main Shiite militia has been pushed out of its strongholds in Baghdad, and Iraqi security forces have been handed control of Basra and Amarah and the former killing fields of Anbar province.

But U.S. military officials have been frank in saying that security gains - though impressive - are fragile. Political progress among Iraqi parties has lagged.

The Iraqi parties' commitment to achieving political agreements to ensure lasting peace will be severely tested in the coming months - and the United States looks set on having enough resources inside the country in case they fail.

The major challenge will likely come late this year when Iraqis elect ruling councils in the nation's 18 provinces. Those councils will wield considerable power over local security forces and resources, including oil.

U.S. officials have long pressed the Iraqis to hold provincial elections to redress power imbalances created when many Sunnis and some Shiites boycotted the last local balloting in January 2005.

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