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Ike Slams Islands As It Begins Swing Into Gulf

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By NEIL JOHNSON | The Tampa Tribune

Published: September 7, 2008

TAMPA - Though Hurricane Ike appears heading into the central Gulf of Mexico next week and away from the Tampa Bay area, local residents can't really relax until the storm gets well past the Keys.

It would probably be late Tuesday or early Wednesday morning before the storm is distant enough to make the Tampa Bay area an unlikely target, said state meteorologist Ben Nelson.

Except for the Florida Keys, where a hurricane watch was posted earlier Sunday, most of Florida is outside the cone of possible strike zones. A hurricane watch means hurricane conditions are possible in the next 36 hours.

The Keys could begin seeing tropical force winds by Monday. The western Panhandle, however, remains in the cone.

But by the middle of the week forecast models predict Ike will begin to weaken as stirring currents relax. Nelson said the slackening steering currents make forecasts difficult.

"We've seen all sorts of things happen when steering currents collapse in the Gulf," he said.
The forecast models differ on whether an area of low pressure will be strong enough or close enough to turn the storm on a more northward track by Tuesday or Wednesday.

Otherwise, the high pressure that's pushed Ike west will dominate the storm's path and continue moving Ike on a more westerly track.

Ike already pushed about 15,000 tourists from the Keys on Saturday and prompted a mandatory evacuation of residents starting this morning.

That order does not seem to be prompting residents to leave, despite the fact a shift of 50 miles or so from the forecast track could put hurricane winds over the islands, Nelson said.
"So far evacuation in the Keys seems to be minimal," he said.

The latest forecast has Ike crossing the rugged eastern end of Cuba today and continuing along most of the length of the island where the storm should spend about 36 hours, the National Hurricane Center said.

That should reduce some of Ike's ferocity, possibly dropping the storm to barely hurricane strength after hitting the island with winds close to 140 mph.

Ike is forecast to quickly regain strength in the Gulf of Mexico and return to Category 3 strength with winds of 115 mph by Friday.

Also, a slight shift north or south would push Ike off Cuba and over water, allowing the storm to keep its strength, forecasters said

However, forecasters at the hurricane center said there is a large amount of uncertainty about where Ike will be on Thursday and Friday.

The entire northern Gulf from the Florida Panhandle to Texas could be in Ike's path, Nelson said.
Forecasters said it appears Ike has ended its southerly drift and started the expected movement to the west.

Officials in the Keys started a phased evacuation for residents Sunday this morning after telling visitors a day earlier to get out. Ike, a dangerous Category 4 storm with winds early today of near 135 mph, was forecast to affect the Keys starting Monday night on a potential track for the central Gulf.

Ike roared across the low-lying Turks and Caicos island chain before dawn Sunday as people in the British territory sought refuge in emergency shelters or in their homes.

"These storms have a mind of their own," Gov. Charlie Crist said after a meeting Saturday with mayors and emergency officials. "There are no rules, so what we have to do is be prepared, be smart, vigilant and alert."

Keys officials will begin resident evacuations on the low-lying chain of islands in phases, starting at the end in Key West by 8 a.m. Sunday and continuing throughout the day, at noon for the Middle Keys, and at 4 p.m. for the Upper Keys, including Key Largo.

"We do understand the inconvenience of evacuations for Keys residents and visitors, but their safety is our top priority," said Monroe County Administrator Roman Gastesi. "It's just too close to not react to it."

Still, the streets of Key West were practically empty Sunday morning, but not because of the storm — the town stays up late and sleeps in.

Rick Van Leuven, 46, manager of the Rick's and Durty Harry's Entertainment Complex, said everyone is pretty much waiting until Monday to see where the storm will go.

"None of us are running," he said. "We're all going to stay."
In Haiti, authorities tried to move thousands of people into shelters ahead of Ike while still struggling to recover from Tropical Storm Hanna's drenching. Rescue workers feared Hanna's death toll could rise into the hundreds in the flooded city of Gonaives if Ike dumped more rain from outer storm bands as the storm rumbled nearby.

In Louisiana, still recovering from last week's Hurricane Gustav, Gov. Bobby Jindal set up a task force to prepare for the possibility of more havoc.

"We're not hoping for another strike, another storm, but we're ready," he said.
Even as Gustav evacuees headed home, New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin said officials were anxiously monitoring Ike on a projected path toward the Gulf.

"Our citizens are weary and they're tired and they have spent a lot of money evacuating … from Gustav," he said. He added that if Ike were to threaten, "my expectations this time is it will be very difficult to move the kind of numbers out of this city that we moved during Gustav."

"It's a very dangerous storm," hurricane center meteorologist Colin McAdie told The Associated Press. "There's going to be some ups and downs, but we expect it to remain a major hurricane over the next couple days."

The hurricane center said Ike was generating large swells at sea that could generate life-threatening rip currents along portions of coast in the southeastern U.S.

Tourists were urged to leave the Bahamas, and authorities in the Dominican Republic began evacuating dozens of families from river banks that could flood because of two already overfilled dams.

Information from The Associated Press was used in this report.

Contact reporter Neil Johnson at (813) 259-7731 or njohnson@tampatrib.com.

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