Associated Press
In front from left are Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Tony Stewart, Kevin Harvick, Clint Bowyer and Kyle Busch. In back are Matt Kenseth, Greg Biffle, Denny Hamlin, Carl Edwards, Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Jeff Burton.
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Published: September 10, 2008
Updated: 09/10/2008 07:29 am
When a caution flag comes out in auto racing, the leader loses most of whatever lead he has been able to build.
Everyone else gets to pull up tight behind the leader, and when the race restarts, the second-place driver is often in prime position to challenge for the lead.
NASCAR's Chase format works the same way. The top 12 drivers get their points reset to 5,000, so even if the points leader has taken a runaway lead, he goes back to even with the 11 other qualifiers, plus or minus the 10-point bonuses that are given for each win.
It might not seem fair, but that's how it works.
Kyle Busch, by winning eight times through the first 26 races, has built an advantage of 207 points over Carl Edwards, 302 over Jimmie Johnson and between 390 and 762 over the other Chase qualifiers.
Busch's revised margin entering the Chase opener Sunday at New Hampshire is 30 points over Edwards, 40 over Johnson and between 70 and 80 over the eight other Chase qualifiers.
Now Busch has Edwards - dangerous even at 207 points back - looming large in his rearview mirror. And he has to deal with peaking two-time defending champion Johnson, the greatest driver in Chase history with 11 race wins over four years.
"You'd love to have a championship, and that would be the ultimate goal," Busch said. "But it's been a good year. If it comes down to something beyond my control, then it wasn't meant to be."
Last year, Jeff Gordon had to give up a 410-point lead over fourth-place Johnson at the start of the Chase. Gordon started the Chase 20 points behind Johnson because he had two fewer victories, and Johnson beat him for the championship by 77 points.
Gordon, although frustrated by last season (he would have beaten Johnson by 353 points), likes the Chase and contends that keeping fans engaged through the full season offsets any perceived injustice.
"The excitement about the Chase is that if you're not having a great year - say your first half is not very good, but you really start to get into your rhythm in the second half - the Chase is phenomenal for you, because now you've gotten the opportunity to win the championship," Gordon said. "Where in the past, you would have never had had the opportunity. You were too far behind."
Busch won eight of the first 22 races in Joe Gibbs Racing's No. 18 Toyota, and while there is talk that he has lost his edge in recent weeks, the reality is he has two seconds, a seventh and a 15th in the last four races.
Edwards has been consistently stout since the start of the year in Roush Fenway's No. 99 Ford, winning six times. Johnson, after a pedestrian start in Hendrick Motorsports' No. 48 Chevy, has found his championship gear the past few weeks.
Those three have been in a league of their own this year, winning a combined 18 of the 26 races - five more than the top three seeds in any previous Chase. They've been so good that some have suggested a championship by anyone else will lack credibility.
More than likely, one of the three will make it through the pratfalls that come about during the Chase and win the championship.
But because the Chase format gives new life to such dangerous qualifiers as four-time Sprint Cup champion Gordon and two-time champion Tony Stewart, it's conceivable someone other than Busch, Edwards or Johnson could rise up and take the title.
"I've had big leads wiped away when the Chase started, and we're on the flip side now," Gordon said. "We were 681 points out before last Sunday's race at Richmond and now it's down to 80. While it has not been a stellar year for us, that could change for us in the final 10 races."
Johnson, with three victories in the last four races, is poised to try to take advantage of his new life.
"I'm trying to show up at New Hampshire scared, worried about the 11 other guys, and worry about doing my part," he said. "And the thing is, I have confidence in what my abilities are and what my team is capable of and the packages we have put together in the last five or six months - short track, big track, all of it."
Reporter Tony Fabrizio can be reached at (813) 259-7994 or afabrizio@tampatrib.com.
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