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McCain To Appear At Tampa Rally Without Palin

The Associated Press

Republican presidential nominee Sen. John McCain listens to a supporter's question during a town hall style meeting Monday in Orlando.

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By WILLIAM MARCH | The Tampa Tribune

Published: September 15, 2008

TAMPA - Now going his separate way from his running mate, Sen. John McCain of Arizona will appear at a rally in Tampa this morning without Sarah Palin but still riding the surge in polls and excitement he got from adding her to his ticket.

Since his convention and his choice of Palin, polls have shown McCain moving ahead of Sen. Barack Obama in Florida.

He also has closed the gap or gained ground in other battleground states and, in the most crucial measure, the race for Electoral College votes, according to several polling data analysts.

Even some Obama supporters worry about the possible disappearance of the "enthusiasm gap," the difference between the energy and excitement of Obama supporters and McCain's previously tepid campaign.

Whether that surge is enough to make McCain the front-runner and whether it's permanent are open questions, according to political experts in Florida and nationally.

"The question no one can answer is how long it will last and whether it is as wide as it is deep," University of Florida political scientist Stephen Craig said of the boost Palin has provided McCain. "It's had a strong effect on some people, but how widespread is that and how permanent?"

Obama Aides Deny Worries

In a conference call with reporters Monday, Obama campaign aides denied they have any worries about the Palin effect and have no intention of backing down from the battle against McCain in Florida. Obama will be back in Florida this week, hitting Miami and Jacksonville on Friday and Saturday.

McCain will speak at a rally at the Tampa Convention Center this morning after events in Jacksonville and Orlando on Monday.

He campaigned with Palin in the week after their convention in Minneapolis. On Saturday, Palin drew an estimated 10,000 people in Carson City, Nev., during her first solo rally outside Alaska.

McCain campaigners had hoped for a sizeable crowd at the Jacksonville event Monday, which was his first single appearance after the two separated.

About 3,000 people showed up in the 14,000-seat Veterans Memorial Arena in Jacksonville, a Republican-voting area. That left Democrats to crow that Obama drew a bigger crowd Monday in another GOP-leaning area, Grand Junction, Colo., and that Obama will draw a bigger Jacksonville crowd Saturday.

There's no question Palin has added some zing to the GOP ticket. "I can't recall a vice presidential candidate adding this much energy," said veteran Emory University political analyst Merle Black.

"She's really mobilized conservatives and energized the base of the party. She's given an optimism to the Republicans that it might be possible to pull off an upset."

At McCain headquarters on Bayshore Boulevard in Tampa on Monday, local campaign co-chairmen Greg Truax and Mark Sharpe, a Hillsborough County commissioner, said they were feeling the effects.

"There's a tremendous enthusiasm, an infectious feel like the Reagan campaign," Sharpe said.

"She has definitely got me fired up," said Kelly Hahn, a Tampa paralegal who supported Mitt Romney during the primary and came to the office during lunch to get a yard sign and offer to volunteer.

Another person who signed up to attend the rally was Randy Zalis, a Tampa real estate broker, former Democrat and strong supporter of Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton.

He described himself as "strongly disillusioned" about Clinton's loss and the Democratic Party's sanctions against Florida over its presidential primary - "'strongly' might be an understatement," he said. "I like supporting women: I think she's a strong role model," he said of Palin. "I don't agree with every position of hers, but I don't have to."

On an Obama conference call for reporters Monday, supporter and Miami-Dade County Commissioner Katy Sorenson said McCain and Palin will campaign together like "Siamese twins" and "the enthusiasm gap is going to be not such a gap."

Obama campaign spokesman Josh Earnest, during the same conference call, said, "Look at the pictures from the Jacksonville event today" where, he said, McCain confronted 10,000 empty seats.

"At the end of the day, people vote for the top of the ticket," he said. "The gap persists and there's a good reason for that: doubts about Sen. McCain and his ability to bring change to Washington."

Obama state director Steve Schale said the polls that show McCain moving up "were done in the immediate afterglow of the Republican convention" and don't reflect a real change in the race.

Analysts: Florida Leaning To McCain

In recent days, several political analysts who study polling data, including the Real Clear Politics Web site, have moved Florida from "toss up" to "leaning McCain" status.

The Web site says states representing 227 votes in the Electoral College are solid or leaning for McCain, compared with 207 for Obama and 104 in tossup states. A candidate must get 270 to be president.

Information from The Associated Press was used in this story. Reporter William March can be reached at (813) 259-7761 or wmarch@tampatrib.com.

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