Politics
Polls: Race For Fla. A Dead Heat
ADVERTISEMENT
Published: September 21, 2008
Updated: 09/21/2008 01:11 am
Related Links
TAMPA - Suddenly, the race for Florida is red hot.
Last week's devastating economic news, hitting harder here than most states, has helped make Florida the front line of the presidential war.
Polls last week suggested that the Sunshine State race is winnable for either John McCain or Barack Obama - though it is likely leaning toward McCain - and now both candidates are acting almost as if they were running for governor.
That's for a good reason: Florida probably has a better chance than any other state to be the decider, a state McCain cannot win without, but which Obama thinks he can take.
It's also a state hit harder than most by the current economic meltdown, after years of sloughing off downturns with a housing and construction-based economy that seemed immune. As the recession tops the charts of presidential issues, Florida seems more in play.
Both campaigns are flooding the zone.
Obama's weekend tour of Florida culminated Saturday with appearances in Daytona Beach and Jacksonville. Following up on McCain's Florida tour last week, Sarah Palin planned a rally in The Villages on Sunday, after a day playing tourist and raising money in Orlando. The Villages is a retirement community about 24 miles south of Ocala and 55 miles northwest of Orlando.
Obama will be back later this week for debate prep in the Tampa Bay area, and both campaigns have surrogates holding events across the state.
"We can win this thing without Florida, but boy, it's a lot easier if we win Florida," Obama told supporters at a fundraising event Friday in South Florida. "If we win Florida, then we have won this election."
Last week, polls by Time/CNN and National Journal/Financial Dynamics showed the race here a dead heat. Two others, both automated-dial polls that some pollsters consider less reliable, showed McCain with a five- to six-point lead.
With the race being roiled by major breaking news, no poll can be considered definitive or mean much long term, experts say. But the chance that Florida is in play registered with the McCain campaign. Palin's visit, previously leaked and then canceled during the week, was quickly back on, with the Orlando stop announced at the last minute Friday.
Obama Expands Schedule
Obama's campaign, whose internal polls also show a tie here, insiders said, expanded his schedule to include the Daytona Beach event, and announced his debate prep plans and surrogate events by Joe Biden's sister, Valerie Biden Owens, and Govs. Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas and Janet Napolitano of Arizona.
Both candidates, University of South Florida political scientist Susan MacManus noted, are hitting areas where they hope for big turnouts.
Obama visited areas with large black populations, including his Daytona Beach event at traditionally black Bethune-Cookman University. Palin will see an affluent, elderly crowd with many retired veterans and Republicans at The Villages.
"It's going to be a turnout battle, and equilibrium in the polls has ignited both campaigns," MacManus said.
"In these battleground states, if one candidate comes one place, the other will try to match it. For young and undecided people, if they can see a candidate in person, that's one more step toward actually voting."
Palin Gives McCain Momentum
McCain fundraiser and veteran Florida political observer Brian Ballard said he's concerned about the tight race.
"I think we're ahead in Florida, not enough to say we're done, but I think the momentum is going our way," he said. "People are going crazy about Palin. Since the days of Ronald Reagan I've never seen people so energized."
Ballard acknowledged, however, that the focus on the economy probably has tightened the polls. Obama has had an edge in polls asking which candidate can handle it best.
Obama supporters say they think the economic troubles may cause undecided voters to take a second look at Obama.
"For the last two decades, Florida has had a pretty good ride economically - better than the nation as a whole - so the current weakness has gotten people's attention," said campaign spokesman Josh Earnest.
Florida's unemployment rate, lower than average through past downturns, is now higher than the nation as a whole and the state has among the highest rates of foreclosures and mortgage fraud, Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink said last week.
University of Virginia political analyst Larry Sabato, a veteran diagnostician of presidential battlegrounds, described Florida as Obama's best hope for picking off a single state that would cost McCain the election.
Sabato said he considers Florida to be leaning toward McCain "for the moment," in part because of its historical voting performance and "racial leakage" of about 1 percent to 3 percent - that is, voters who may say in polls they're for Obama but in fact will not vote for a black candidate.
"If we are approaching campaign's end and McCain is still having trouble in North Carolina and Florida, that probably will tell the tale - it will mean Obama has a decent lead nationally," he said.
Reporter William March can be reached at (813) 259-7761 or wmarch@tampatrib.com.
ADVERTISEMENT
Advertisement
TBO.com - Tampa Bay Online Member Agreement | Privacy Statement | Work With Us
