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Sluggish Holiday Sales Forecast

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The Associated Press

Published: September 23, 2008

NEW YORK - Holiday sales are expected to grow at the slowest pace in six years as shoppers worry about jobs, the housing and stock markets and high gas and food prices, according to a forecast from the National Retail Federation being released Tuesday.

The outlook from the retail trade group joins other weak holiday predictions issued so far that will likely lead to aggressive discounting and pre-Thanksgiving sales blitzes as stores try to pry dollars from frugal shoppers.

Merchants have also scaled back holiday inventories and seasonal sales staff from a year ago.

The challenges are compounded by a holiday season that has five fewer days between Thanksgiving and Christmas Day than in 2007, which could make consumers delay their buying.

"You don't have a good picture," said Rosalind Wells, the NRF's chief economist.

The Washington-based trade association predicted that total holiday sales will rise a modest 2.2 percent for the November and December period from a year ago, to $470.4 billion. That would be below the 10-year average of 4.4 percent holiday sales growth and a bit below the 2.4 percent gain last year. It would also be the slowest pace since 1.3 percent in 2002.

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