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Evacuation Not Always The Right Call

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By MARK ABKOWITZ

The Tampa Tribune

Published: September 25, 2008

Hurricane Ike unleashed its fury on the Texas coast and surrounding areas during the early morning hours of Sept. 13 before wreaking havoc on the Midwest. The aftermath has left several dead, thousands homeless and millions without power - a catastrophe for sure.

Yet, these consequences pale in comparison to what might have happened if Houston mayor Bill White made a decision to evacuate its residents rather than stay in place. This was a difficult risk management decision and one made with great care and selflessness.

When Ike made an unexpected turn northward towards Houston, the city had less than 48 hours to determine how to protect its more than 2 million residents. The knee-jerk reaction would've been to declare a mandatory evacuation, mobilizing an all-out migration inland. Yet, as the city deliberated, it recognized that there are risks with every decision, and that a bad decision can lead to even greater destruction.

The area learned a valuable lesson from Hurricane Rita, when an attempted evacuation of the city so overwhelmed the transportation infrastructure that the interstate became a parking lot. Not only were people unable to escape, but they also were trapped in vehicles and intense heat without food, water and fuel. Of the 108 fatalities attributed to Rita, 90 of the victims died from hypothermia while attempting to evacuate. Had Rita tracked closer to the city, stalled motorists would've been sitting ducks and the consequences dire. Moreover, having Houston residents occupy these arteries prevented residents of low-lying coastal areas, like Galveston, from reaching higher ground. A repeat performance for Ike would've virtually guaranteed their demise at the hands of storm surges and widespread flooding.

But this time, Bill White made a different decision. Houston was going to stay in place. Residents of Galveston and other coastal areas were able to get out of harm's way. Ike roared, Houston survived and the overall death toll was low.
Responsible risk management does not mean that we can protect everybody all of the time. Rather, it's being able to understand the nature of a threat, evaluate the consequences of various actions, and then make a decision that gives the best chance of survival.

For Houston, it was a tough call. It was a courageous call. It was the right call.

Mark Abkowitz is professor of civil engineering at Vanderbilt University and author of "Operational Risk Management - A Case Study Approach to Effective Planning and Response."

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