TBO.com - TBO is Tampa Bay Online

McCain's Gambles Show Pattern Of 'Unpredictability'

ADVERTISEMENT

By WILLIAM MARCH

The Tampa Tribune

Published: September 28, 2008

TAMPA - A "maverick"? Or just "erratic"?

Bold, independent and principled? Or impetuous and desperate to shake up a race as his opponent moves up in the polls?

You could hear both descriptions of Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., in the aftermath of the first presidential debate Friday.

There's no clear consensus among political analysts on who won the debate.

But another question is how and why it almost failed to happen, and what it says about a candidate given to doing the unexpected.

On Wednesday, McCain delivered his second campaign shocker in less than a month, announcing a suspension of his campaign and asking to delay the debate. He said he planned to head for Washington and dive into the contentious can of worms over a financial industry bailout bill.

That followed his unorthodox and unexpected choice of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate in late August.

There have been other surprises:

•His suggestion to fire Securities and Exchange Commission Chairman Christopher Cox.

•An unconventional ad campaign, and a series of some of the most slashing, widely condemned, negative ads ever in presidential races.

•Last summer's wholesale reshuffling of his then-failing campaign, including firing his closest, longest-tenured adviser, David Weaver, to gamble his race on a bid to win the New Hampshire primary.

The list could go on.

"There is a pattern," said University of South Florida political scientist Susan MacManus, of "unpredictability" and a tendency to shake up the race when things look gloomy.

In the case of the Palin pick, it clearly worked, she said.

"It was totally unexpected, announced at a time when people were focused on the Illinois Sen. Barack Obama campaign and a lot of Republicans were despondent about an unexciting ticket," MacManus said. "She brought his campaign back to life."

But in the case of the maneuvering around the debate, McCain's bold move may not have been quite so successful.

MacManus thinks it "didn't really give him a huge boost, but didn't really hurt him either."

McCain Move Upped Ante

Both candidates clearly wanted to put their own stamp on the solution to the Wall Street crisis.

Before the debate, Obama initially pursued a joint statement by the rivals of principles supporting a bailout bill - a move that potentially could make him appear to be the statesman seeking a bipartisan solution.

But McCain upped the ante by announcing a suspension of campaigning and seeking a delay of the debate.

McCain's backers say that demonstrated his "country-first" principles. "He is willing to risk the election to do what's right for the country," said Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah.

But Obama supporters called it a ploy to change the shape of the race, in which Obama was moving into the lead in national polls, and the national focus on the economy, on which polls say voters trust Obama more.

Saturday, Obama campaign manager David Plouffe called McCain's campaign "erratic," and said his approach to the bailout bill "is clearly not about principle, it's about politics."

Bailout Accounts Differ

McCain's latest shake-and-bake move came after about 24 hours of backstage dealings between the two, including conflicting proposals to work together on the bailout bill, at the instigation of Republican Sen. Tom Coburn of Oklahoma, a longtime ally of McCain and a friend of both.

Obama said he started the dialogue with McCain based on a suggestion Tuesday night from Coburn. Obama wanted to issue a joint statement emphasizing features he and McCain agree should be in a bill - eventual repayment of tax money, limits on chief executive pay and others.

But after talking to Obama on Wednesday - and, Obama says, agreeing to a joint statement - McCain pre-empted the discussion with a televised statement that he was suspending his campaign and seeking a delay in the debate.

Their accounts of a key phone call Wednesday afternoon differ - Obama says McCain agreed to the joint statement, but McCain says he asked Obama to go to Washington with him.

To many, that leaves their motives uncertain as well.

"It isn't either all purity or all self-interest on the part of either," said presidential politics specialist Bruce Buchanan of the University of Texas. "I think you see a little bit of both in both candidates."

But, Buchanan said, McCain's political style was a disadvantage.

"His honest instinct to get in there and do something - where it's obvious to anyone there's not a great lot he can do - invites the perception that this is grandstanding," Buchanan said. "I think he does honestly have these impetuous desires to rush forth and be a leader, but it's also a way to grab the advantage back in an area where he's losing ground. It's a little bit desperate, and may have cemented the theory that he's too impetuous."

Reporter William March can be reached at (813) 259-7761 or wmarch@tampatrib.com.

Loading Comments...

Email Print

ADVERTISEMENT