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Experts scale back hurricane forecast

By NEIL JOHNSON

njohnson@tampatrib.com

Published: April 8, 2009

TAMPA - Forecasters from Colorado State University have reduced their prediction of hurricane activity to an average number of storms.

The newest forecast from William Gray and Phil Klotzbach calls for 12 tropical storms, with six becoming hurricanes and two of those growing to major storms of Category 3 or stronger.

Gray has issued predictions of hurricane activity for 26 years.

This forecast is close to the long-term average for hurricane seasons: 10 tropical storms, with six of them hurricanes and two of those major.

The last forecast from Gray and Klotzbach, issued in December, called for 14 tropical storms, with seven becoming hurricanes and three of those with winds topping 111 mph.

There were two main reasons they scaled down the forecast.

The national Climate Prediction Center says there is a chance a weak El Nino will form this year. An El Nino, or warming of water in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, creates conditions in the atmosphere that stunt the growth of developing hurricanes.

Also, temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean are dropping slightly. Hurricanes feed on warm water.

Hurricane season runs June 1 through Nov. 30.

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