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Henderson: Victory Is In The Cards

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By JOE HENDERSON | The Tampa Tribune

Published: February 1, 2009

TAMPA - Let us bow our heads while we read from the Book of Noll, Chapter 1:

In the beginning, Pittsburgh created defense, and it was good. Defense wins championships.

Until now.

Heresy, I know. Burn me at the stake, and may Jack Lambert have mercy on my soul. But I'm calling for the biggest Super Bowl upset since, um, last year.

Arizona will win the Super Bowl.

The Cardinals will beat Pittsburgh and the latest incarnation of the Steel Curtain. By 10 o'clock Sunday night, we'll be dusting off all the clichés about Phoenix rising and all that stuff. I know. I already used that line when Joey Johnston of The Tampa Tribune trapped me on my cell phone and gave me 15 seconds to make a pick and give a reason why.

The more I actually thought about it, though, I couldn't find a scenario where Pittsburgh can actually cover Larry Fitzgerald. Even if the Steelers do, he'll go up and make a one-finger catch while twisting like a windsock between three defenders.

The Steelers will rush ageless Kurt Warner all night and it won't matter. He gets rid of the ball so quickly that you can't get him, and it always goes to the right guy.

If the Steelers devote too many resources to stopping Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin will make them pay. If they sell out to stop the pass entirely, Edgerrin James will run it up their backside. The Cardinals really took off when they rediscovered that they have the second-leading rusher in NFL history in their backfield. The threat of James running the ball gives a team enough cause for pause that it should open up the passing game even more.

I know, I know … Pittsburgh's defense is tremendous.

Let's look at this in detail though, shall we?

The Steelers shut down Baltimore in the AFC title game. Big whoop. Baltimore couldn't score against Armwood. They beat back San Diego in their other playoff game, but the Chargers were without LaDainian Tomlinson.

Arizona is at full strength.

No one is going to confuse the Cardinals' defense with the Steel Curtain, and the Steelers do like to control the ball. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is likely to play the ol' "take what they give you" game, but he can strike deep when he needs to. I suspect the Steelers will have to open it up on offense, though, because I think Arizona is going to put up some points.

It's popular to look at the Cardinals' stumbles down the stretch of the regular season when they were blown out in three of four games. I'd rather focus on what they've done when the money is on the line.

A lot of people believed they'd lose to Atlanta in the opening round of the playoffs. They didn't.

Everyone believed they'd lose at Carolina the following week. Everyone was wrong.

Philadelphia was the chic choice in the NFC title game. Seen the Eagles lately?

There's something special going on here. Pittsburgh's a heavy favorite and, on paper, you can understand why. As the Steelers once mockingly said of the Bucs, though, it's not about being a paper champion. The Cardinals are on a roll.

It will continue.

Arizona by a field goal.

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