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Aspirations Challenge Iorio

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By WILLIAM MARCH wmarch@tampatrib.com

The Tampa Tribune

Published: February 1, 2009

TAMPA Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio faces a tough political task if she decides to run for the U.S. Senate: build a local political base into a statewide campaign in one of the nation's largest states.

So far, her political career has taken place in a single county, with limited fundraising experience and statewide exposure. She'll also have less history of involvement in partisan politics than most of the other candidates.

But that apolitical reputation could be an advantage in a general election.

And Iorio has other advantages: executive experience as mayor and elections supervisor, a home base in the politically crucial Tampa Bay area and being a woman in a Democratic primary.

All in all, some political experts say, Iorio, if she decides to jump in, must be considered a serious contender.

"I think she has a pretty even shot with the rest of the field," said University of South Florida political scientist Susan MacManus.

Iorio told The Tampa Tribune last week that she is considering a run for the seat being vacated by Mel Martinez in 2011. A shrinking field of candidates has made the prospect more attractive with each passing week.

Already, two of the best-known potential candidates - Democrat Alex Sink and Republican Jeb Bush - have said they won't run. Republican Gov. Charlie Crist hasn't ruled it out, but isn't considered likely to jump in.

That may mean Iorio, if she runs, wouldn't be a David challenging a political Goliath.

In addition, two other potential candidates, Republican Attorney General Bill McCollum and Democratic U.S. Rep. Allen Boyd of Monticello, both announced last week that they won't run.

McCollum was the only remaining likely candidate from either party who has won a statewide race; Boyd would have competed for votes of moderate and non-South Florida Democrats.

A looming question, MacManus said, is whether Iorio can raise enough money in a state where a senate campaign can cost $30 million.

"That's a key for all of them, because they're regional candidates," she said.

By comparison, Iorio spent about $475,000 on her 2003 mayor's race.

Obstacles aside, there are circumstances that make this race ideal for Iorio:

•The 2010 Senate election will occur just months before Iorio would leave office anyway, in spring 2011. Recent changes in the state's resign-to-run law mean she wouldn't have to leave office for the campaign unless, and until, she chose to - possibly after the primary, for example.

•An open Senate seat - one with no incumbent running for re-election - is a rare political plum that comes along no more than once every 20 years or so in any state. An open seat with no statewide officeholder running in her own party is even more rare.

•Two prominent Miami-area Democrats have already announced in the race, U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek and state Sen. Dan Gelber. They may split the huge Southeast Florida Democratic voting bloc, a bloc that often makes it tough for a non-South Florida candidate to win a Democratic primary.

Meek will appeal to the large contingent of black voters in the big southeast counties, while Gelber will appeal to the many Jewish voters.

Iorio has never run for office outside Hillsborough County. She received some statewide attention as county elections chief during the 2000 presidential election recount and as Tampa mayor.

She has also avoided intense involvement in party politics, partly because the mayor's office is nonpartisan, and as elections supervisor, she had to work with all parties equally. She endorsed Barack Obama in the Democratic presidential primary, for example, but wasn't heavily involved in his campaign or others.

"The best posture in a nonpartisan office is to operate in as nonpartisan a way as possible," she said in 2004 when asked why she wasn't involved in the Kerry campaign.

Neither Meek nor Gelber has run a statewide race, and they're also little known outside their districts.

But both have been active in party politics for years, noted Bob Buckhorn, a veteran Democratic activist and former Tampa City Council member who ran against Iorio in the 2003 mayor's race.

Meek, for example, ran the 2002 statewide campaign for a constitutional amendment limiting school class sizes and headed John Kerry's Florida presidential campaign in 2004.

Gelber, a veteran state legislator and articulate spokesman for the Democratic take on state issues, was heavily involved in the controversy over the 2008 Florida Democratic presidential primary.

That means they'll start out with statewide fundraising contacts Iorio won't have, Buckhorn said.

On the other hand, he said, Iorio's "apolitical" reputation will appeal to moderates and independents in a general election.

"She also has a record of having run something" - city hall and the elections office, he said. "All that makes her a top-tier candidate out of the box."

Gelber disputed the idea that two South Florida candidates would make the path easier for a Tampa Bay area candidate.

"People overestimate geography in these races," he said. "There will be people who vote for the person they know, but most of us aren't known that well and don't have a statewide identity like a Gov. Crist or Sen. Bob Graham.

"Pretty much everybody's at the same starting line," he said.

Reporter William March can be reached at (813) 259-7761.

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