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Shiite Council Losing Grip

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The Associated Press

Published: February 2, 2009

BAGHDAD - The biggest Shiite party in Iraq once appeared to hold all the political sway: control of the heartland, the backing of influential clerics and a foot in the government with ambitions to take full control.

But the days of wide-open horizons could soon be ending for the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council and replaced by important shifts that could be welcomed in Washington and scorned in Tehran.

The signs began to take shape Sunday with hints of the voter mood from provincial elections.

The broad message - built on Iraqi media projections and post-election interviews - was that the eventual results would punish religious-leaning factions, such as the Supreme Council, that are blamed for stoking sectarian violence, and would reward secular parties seen as capable of holding Iraq's relative calm.

The outcome of the provincial races will not directly affect Iraq's national policies or its balance between Washington's global power and Iran's regional muscle. But Shiite political trends are critically important in Iraq, where majority Shiites hold sway after the fall of Saddam Hussein's Sunni-dominated regime.

"There is a backlash from Iraqis against sectarian and religious politics," said Mustafa al-Ani, an Iraqi political analyst based in Dubai, United Arab Emirates.

Although official results from Saturday's provincial elections are likely still days away, the early outlines are humbling for the Supreme Council. The group had been considered a linchpin in Iraqi politics as a junior partner in the government that had near seamless political control in the Shiite south.

Some forecasts point to widespread losses for the party across the main Shiite provinces. The blows could include embarrassing stumbles in the key city of Basra and the spiritual center of Najaf - hailed as the future capital in the Supreme Council's dreams for an autonomous Shiite enclave.

In their place, the big election winners appear to be allies of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, according to projections and interviews with political figures who spoke on condition of anonymity because official results were not posted.

"The elections gave us an indication of what will happen in the general election late this year," al-Ani said. "Those who lost in this election have nearly a year to learn their lesson and change their strategy. They know now where the Iraqis stand."

After the election results are known, the deal-making begins. Again, the Supreme Council could be left in the cold.

The political-militia movement of Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr has indicated it may be willing to strike deals with al-Makiki's allies on the councils. It would be a starting turnabout.

Just last year, al-Sadr was denouncing the government as it joined American forces to dismantle his Mahdi Army's main enclave in Baghdad.

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