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Tony Fabrizio's Chase Picks

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By TONY FABRIZIO | The Tampa Tribune

Published: February 8, 2009

1. JIMMIE JOHNSON

Age: 33

Car/team: No. 48 Chevy, Hendrick Motorsports

Crew chief: Chad Knaus

Starts/wins: 255, 40

Comment: The preseason media poll had three-time defending champion Johnson ranked second to Carl Edwards, which is almost laughable considering what Johnson has done in the past five seasons. Until proven otherwise, the No. 48 team is the best in NASCAR.

2. CARL EDWARDS

Age: 29

Car/team: No. 99 Ford, Roush Fenway Racing

Crew chief: Bob Osborne

Starts/wins: 157, 16

Comment: Team boss Jack Roush upgraded a team that had a Sprint Cup-high nine victories last year, so Edwards should be very good as he enters his fifth full season. Edwards is particularly tough on intermediate tracks, the most common track on the circuit.

3. KYLE BUSCH

Age: 23

Car/team: No. 18 Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing

Crew chief: Steve Addington

Starts/wins: 150, 12

Comment: When it comes to raw speed, the younger Busch brother has no peer. But there's more to winning a championship than speed. Busch and his team will need to have fewer mistakes and mechanical failures in the Chase if they're going to win a championship.

4. MATT KENSETH

Age: 36

Car/team: No. 17 Ford, Roush Fenway Racing

Crew chief: Drew Blickensderfer

Starts/wins: 328, 16

Comment: Kenseth starts with his third crew chief in three seasons, but this is better than it sounds. Chip Bolin, who handled the duty last year, has moved back to his original team engineer position. Blickensderfer was Carl Edwards' Nationwide Series chief.

5. GREG BIFFLE

Age: 39

Car/team: No. 16 Ford, Roush Fenway Racing

Crew chief: Greg Erwin

Starts/wins: 222, 14

Comment: Biffle finished second in the 2005 points and third last year, and the pieces are in place for another strong run. Rebounding from missing the Chase in 2006 and 2007, he became the first driver to win the first two races of the Chase (New Hampshire and Dover).

5. DALE EARNHARDT JR.

Age: 34

Car/team: Hendrick Motorsports

Crew chief: Tony Eury Jr.

Starts/wins: 327, 18

Comment: This could be a pivotal year for the cousin driver/crew chief combination. If Earnhardt doesn't contend for a championship in his sophomore year with Hendrick Motorsports, there will be carping within the fan base and maybe some push for a change.

7. JEFF BURTON

Age: 41

Car/team: No. 31 Chevy, Richard Childress Racing

Crew chief: Scott Miller

Starts/wins: 475, 19

Comment: Burton enters his 16th season knowing that if he's going to win a championship, he probably needs to do so soon. He has demonstrated the consistency needed in recent years (7th, 7th, 6th in points), but all of the RCR cars need more speed.

8. KURT BUSCH

Age: 30

Car/team: No. 2 Dodge, Penske Racing

Crew chief: Pat Tryson

Starts/wins: 292, 18

Comment: Busch has missed the Chase in two of his three seasons with Penske, but he's a better driver than that, and Penske is a better team. Both Penske and Dodge have been working diligently to get better with the Car of Tomorrow, and this could be a year of results.

9. JEFF GORDON

Age: 37

Car/team: No. 24 Chevy, Hendrick Motorsports

Crew chief: Steve Letarte

Starts/wins: 545, 81

Comment: Gordon fell back a couple of notches after his six-win, runner-up season in 2007, failing to win a race for the first time since his rookie season in 1993. Given that his cars are prepared in the same shop as Johnson's, Gordon will have the tools to rebound.

10. KEVIN HARVICK

Age: 33

Car/team: No. 29 Chevy, Richard Childress Racing

Crew chief: Todd Berrier

Starts/wins: 286, 11

Comment: The 2007 Daytona 500 winner was winless in 2008, but his fourth-place finish in the points matched his career best. Harvick hasn't had a DNF (did not finish) since September 2006, which is a major reason he has been in the mix the last two seasons.

11. DENNY HAMLIN

Age: 28

Car/team: No. 11 Toyota, Joe Gibbs Racing

Crew chief: Mike Ford

Starts/wins: 115, 4

Comment: Brandon-born Hamlin has been on something of a pity kick, beating himself up for not having accomplished more by this point in his career. Well, he's done quite a bit - making the Chase in all three of his full-time seasons - and he can't be dismissed as a contender.

12. TONY STEWART

Age: 37

Car/team: No. 14 Chevy, Stewart-Haas Racing

Crew chief: Darien Grubb

Starts/wins: 356, 33

Comment: Stewart moves to an owner-driver role with a team (formerly Haas CNC Racing) that has never won a race. But he has attracted considerable talent and resources and could be a pest with Hendrick Motorsports engines. Look for a couple of wins.

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